If History Rhymes, Investors Are Unlikely To Recover Principal In 2022

www.investing.com/analysis/if-history-rhymes-investors-are-unlikely-to-recover-principal-in-2022-200624642

By Gary Gordon | May 20, 2022 02:59PM ET

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Stocks have already lost 18% through the first 96 trading days of 2022. Odds are, things should get better from here, right?

When stocks experience losses that surpass 10% through mid-May of a trading year, investors often see gains by the end of December. About half the time. 50-50.

That’s the good news.

On the flip side, if history rhymes, investors are unlikely to recover their principal in 2022. There are zero instances where early losses of 10%-plus offered full-year returns that were positive.

S&P 500 Worst Performance Through 96 Trading Days

More importantly, perhaps, stocks are now a stone’s throw from the 20% bear market line. So far, buyers are stepping up at 3835-3840 on the S&P 500.

E-Mini 5-Minute Chart

An end-of-day close below 3837, however, could alter the narrative. We may indeed see a shift from “buying the dips” to “selling the rips.”

S&P 500 Daily Chart

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Chandru Samtani May 20, 2022 5:48PM ET

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US 30	31,078.0	+302.6	+0.98%
US 500	3,824.4	+39.0	+1.03%
Dow Jones	31,097.26	+321.83	+1.05%
S&P 500	3,825.33	+39.95	+1.06%
Nasdaq	11,127.84	+99.11	+0.90%
S&P 500 VIX	26.70	-2.01	-7.00%
Dollar Index	104.880	+0.416	+0.40%

Crude Oil WTI	108.46	+2.70	+2.55%
Brent Oil	111.48	+2.45	+2.25%
Natural Gas	5.620	+0.196	+3.61%
Gold	1,812.90	+5.60	+0.31%
Silver	19.823	-0.529	-2.60%
Copper	3.6138	-0.0962	-2.59%
US Soybeans	1,510.50	-48.50	-3.11%

SPDR S&P 500	381.24	+3.99	+1.06%
iShares Russell 2000	171.41	+2.05	+1.21%
Invesco QQQ Trust	282.13	+1.85	+0.66%
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 2X Shares	35.44	+1.98	+5.92%
iShares Silver	18.31	-0.33	-1.77%
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures	13.99	-0.54	-3.72%
ProShares UltraPro QQQ	24.39	+0.39	+1.62%

Apple	138.93	+2.21	+1.62%
Alphabet A	2,174.75	-4.51	-0.21%
Tesla	681.79	+8.37	+1.24%
Amazon.com	109.56	+3.35	+3.15%
Netflix	179.95	+5.08	+2.90%
Meta Platforms	160.03	-1.22	-0.76%
Bank of America	31.56	+0.43	+1.38%

	Interest Rates	Next Meeting
FED	1.75%	Jul 27, 2022
ECB	0.00%	Jul 21, 2022
BOE	1.25%	Aug 04, 2022
SNB	-0.25%	Sep 22, 2022
RBA	0.85%	Jul 05, 2022
BOC	1.50%	Jul 13, 2022
RBNZ	2.00%	Jul 13, 2022
BOJ	-0.10%	Jul 21, 2022
CBR	9.50%	Jul 22, 2022
RBI	4.90%	Aug 04, 2022
PBOC	3.70%
BCB	13.25%	Aug 03, 2022

If History Rhymes, Investors Are Unlikely To Recover Principal In 2022

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