If History Rhymes, Investors Are Unlikely To Recover Principal In 2022

www.investing.com/analysis/if-history-rhymes-investors-are-unlikely-to-recover-principal-in-2022-200624642

By Gary Gordon | May 20, 2022 02:59PM ET

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Stocks have already lost 18% through the first 96 trading days of 2022. Odds are, things should get better from here, right?

When stocks experience losses that surpass 10% through mid-May of a trading year, investors often see gains by the end of December. About half the time. 50-50.

That’s the good news.

On the flip side, if history rhymes, investors are unlikely to recover their principal in 2022. There are zero instances where early losses of 10%-plus offered full-year returns that were positive.

S&P 500 Worst Performance Through 96 Trading Days

More importantly, perhaps, stocks are now a stone’s throw from the 20% bear market line. So far, buyers are stepping up at 3835-3840 on the S&P 500.

E-Mini 5-Minute Chart

An end-of-day close below 3837, however, could alter the narrative. We may indeed see a shift from “buying the dips” to “selling the rips.”

S&P 500 Daily Chart

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Chandru Samtani May 20, 2022 5:48PM ET

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US 30	33,656.0	-9.0	-0.03%
US 500	4,270.5	+3.0	+0.07%
Dow Jones	33,665.02	+91.74	+0.27%
S&P 500	4,267.52	-16.33	-0.38%
Nasdaq	13,104.89	-171.52	-1.29%
S&P 500 VIX	14.09	+0.15	+1.08%
Dollar Index	103.618	-0.437	-0.42%

Crude Oil WTI	72.99	+0.46	+0.63%
Brent Oil	77.38	+0.43	+0.56%
Natural Gas	2.369	+0.040	+1.72%
Gold	1,968.45	+10.05	+0.51%
Silver	23.885	+0.356	+1.51%
Copper	3.7550	-0.0010	-0.03%
US Soybeans	1,363.00	+3.00	+0.22%

U.S. 10Y	3.779	-0.005	-0.13%
U.S. 30Y	3.945	+0.008	+0.21%
U.S. 5Y	3.948	+0.029	+0.73%
U.S. 3M	5.303	-0.015	-0.29%
US 10Y T-Note	112.98	-0.23	-0.21%
Euro Bund	133.41	+0.12	+0.09%
10-2 Yield Spread	-82.19	-3.87	4.94%

Apple	177.82	-1.39	-0.78%
Alphabet A	122.50	-4.81	-3.78%
Tesla	224.57	+3.26	+1.47%
Amazon.com	121.23	-5.38	-4.25%
Netflix	399.77	+0.48	+0.12%
Meta Platforms	263.60	-7.52	-2.77%
Bank of America	29.48	+0.25	+0.86%

If History Rhymes, Investors Are Unlikely To Recover Principal In 2022

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