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Gold: Skis Are On, Time To Choose The Slope

By Sunshine Profits (Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA)CommoditiesJun 16, 2021 11:07AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/gold-skis-are-on-time-to-choose-the-slope-200586481
Gold: Skis Are On, Time To Choose The Slope
By Sunshine Profits (Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA)   |  Jun 16, 2021 11:07AM ET
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Depending on the upcoming FOMC meeting, gold will need to choose one of the two ways down – the ski trail or the black slope. Which one lies ahead?

In the skiers’ vernacular, a ski trail is a very easy way down, with a light gradient at full length. It looks like the late-2012 decline in gold. However, there is also a black slope – a steep and dangerous road on which inexperienced skiers can hurt themselves badly; it’s very similar to what happened to gold in 2008 and 2020. While we don’t know yet which way we will choose to go down (as we have probably just reached the top), the nearest FOMC event will most likely shove us towards one of them. Let’s put our helmets on.

The world is holding its breath for today’s comments from the Fed, knowing that one of the approaches would be a game-changer.

If the Fed hints that it’s ready to taper its stimulus, the long-term rates will likely rally, whereas stocks, precious metals and commodities will likely slide. But if it doesn’t do that, it seems that whatever has been going on in the above markets will likely continue based on their technical developments.

In the case of gold, it means either a measured late-2012-style decline or a more powerful slide similar to the moves we saw in 2008 and 2020. Which one will it be? Either way, the next big move is likely to be to the downside (even if dovish comments were to spur some immediate-term gains). Why? Because history tends to rhyme, and right now, gold is simply repeating its price patterns from the past that were preceded by relatively similar events (invalidation of the breakout to new all-time highs – just like in 2008; similarity with regard to price moves, volume, and key indicators – just like in 2011-2012).

Gold Daily Chart.
Gold Daily Chart.

Gold declined once again today, but since it remains between the declining medium-term support line and the rising short-term resistance line, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears remains in place.

The above chart is likely either perplexing, confusing or appearing random for those who haven’t stumbled upon the technical analysis toolkit. But to those who have learned about its principles and have used it themselves, the above chart is very exciting. And to those who took the expertise to the next level and see an even bigger picture, the chart is relatively calm, and normal.

Gold: How Exciting Are Recent Moves?

Why would the above chart be so exciting? Because gold just broke below its rising dashed support line and closed the day below it. This is the first time that it managed to do that, despite coming close to it a few times before. The excitement is even bigger because of what happened on an intraday basis – gold moved back to its declining support line based on the 2020 and 2021 highs and then it moved back up. Consequently, based on the same session, both bulls and bears have an indication that “they were right all along.” Was yesterday’s session a major breakdown, or a confirmation of the May breakout?

But how excited can you get if it’s clear that gold is simply repeating its price patterns from the past that were preceded by relatively similar events (invalidation of breakout to new all-time highs – just like in 2008; similarity with regard to price moves, volume, and key indicators – just like in 2011-2012).

Watching a football match is not as exciting when you already know the outcome, is it?

What’s likely to happen now? Gold is likely to move back and forth, but will ultimately break below the declining support line, which will be a major “uh-oh” moment for those who think that gold will move higher from here based on the very positive fundamental situation. Yes, it is very positive, but it doesn’t mean that gold would rally right away. It could decline despite the fundamentals, just like it did in 2008 and in 2013. And it seems that it’s about to slide.

Gold And USD Daily Chart.
Gold And USD Daily Chart.

Back in 2008, gold corrected to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but it stopped rallying approximately when the USD Index started to rally, and the general stock market accelerated its decline.

Taking into consideration that the general stock market has probably just topped, and the USD Index is about to rally, then gold is likely to slide for the final time in the following weeks/months. Both above-mentioned markets support this bearish scenario and so do the self-similar patterns in terms of gold price itself.

Moreover, while the pace of gold’s decline in 2012 started off slow, the momentum picked up later on as the drawdown became more vicious. As a result, the tepid pace of gold’s current slide remains deceptive and isn’t a cause for concern.

Please see below:

Gold And USD Daily Chart.
Gold And USD Daily Chart.

The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.

Interestingly, the 2012 rally ended on huge volume, which is exactly what we saw also on May 19 this year. Consequently, forecasting much higher gold prices here doesn’t seem to be justified based on the historical analogies.

The thing I would like to emphasize here is that gold didn’t form the final top at the huge-volume reversal on Sep. 13, 2012. It moved back and forth for a while and moved a bit above that high-volume top, and only then the final top took place (in early October 2012).

The same happened in September and in October 2008. Gold reversed on huge volume in mid-September, and it was approximately the end of the rally. The final top, however, formed after some back-and-forth trading and a move slightly above the previous high.

Consequently, the fact that gold moved a bit above its own high-volume reversal (May 19, 2021) is not an invalidation of the analogy, but rather its continuation.

The lower part of the above chart shows how the USD Index and the general stock market performed when gold ended its late-2012 rally and was starting its epic decline. In short, that was when the USD Index bottomed, and when the general stock market topped.

Also, please note that while it might seem bullish that gold managed to rally above its declining black resistance line recently (the one based on the 2020 top and the 2021 top), the same happened in 2012 – I marked the analogous line with red. The breakout didn’t prevent gold from sliding. When the price reached the line, we saw a short-term bounce, but nothing more than that – the gold price fell through it in the following weeks. Consequently, if history rhymes, the support provided by the current declining medium-term support line is unlikely to trigger anything more than a short-term bounce. And since we’re already after this event, gold’s next attempt to break below it might be successful.

Having said that, let’s take a look at silver.

Silver Daily Chart.
Silver Daily Chart.

Silver’s Failed Attempts To Break Out

Silver confirmed its breakdown below its rising support line, and it has just finished invalidating its fifth attempt to break above the early January highs. This is a clearly bearish combination, even without taking into account the similarity between now, 2020, and 2008.

Let’s keep in mind that silver might hesitate to decline substantially at first, but then play a huge catch-up close to the end of the decline – just as it did in 2020.

GDX Daily Chart.
GDX Daily Chart.

Miners: Breaking Below Support Lines Without USDX Help

The breakdown in the GDX (NYSE:GDX) ETF is also crystal clear. Moreover, it’s almost confirmed, as the GDX ETF closed below its rising dashed support line for the second day in a row.

We saw a buy signal from the stochastic indicator, but the breakdown in terms of closing prices is more important, as the buy signals from the stochastic (below 20) were not that reliable so far this year. Please note that the mid-January buy signal was followed by much lower prices in the following weeks. The same was the case with the first buy signal that we saw in late February.

And indeed, the supposedly bullish signal has already been reversed by another sell signal. Thus, the trend remains down and the outlook remains bearish.

GDXJ Chart.
GDXJ Chart.

The breakdown is also clear in the case of the 4-hour chart featuring the proxy for junior miners – the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) ETF.

On the above chart, we see that the huge-volume rally has once again worked as a sell signal – in the past, it often heralded short-term declines like the current one.

USD And Gold Daily Chart.
USD And Gold Daily Chart.

What’s particularly interesting, gold and gold miners have broken decisively below their rising support lines without the USD Index’s help. This is a sign of weakness in the precious metals market.

Gold: Skis Are On, Time To Choose The Slope
 

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Gold: Skis Are On, Time To Choose The Slope

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Comments (21)
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 18, 2021 12:09PM ET
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wellness check? I guess you can give this a try again when the dollar hits 85 and goes over 2,000. I'll be here with you buddy.
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 18, 2021 12:09PM ET
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*gold
Robert Milling
Rob1287 Jun 17, 2021 8:32AM ET
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Looking at silver its hit the long term one year trend line. The trend is still up. So it either breaks this trend and continues down or this is a buying opportunity as the up trend is still in place. I have been here before for the past year and every time we have this sell off its always the same. People take the one day or two big uptick or sell off and declare victory. A day or two does not a trend make unless you are day trading and I am not day trading. Be it a stock or silver or anything else, I am a buy and hold until the trend clearly breaks for fundamental reasons.
Sultan rival
Sultan rival Jun 17, 2021 8:32AM ET
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I am also trying to understand if I should buy or what ... this may be huge oppurtunity
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 17, 2021 8:32AM ET
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he is wrong again. look at the 10-year bond yield if he was right it would have went up not retraced its it's gains. he screwed up again. buy silver and let him try again with the dollar at 85 and gold over 2,000 very soon
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 17, 2021 8:32AM ET
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Sultan rival not to mention he has no idea about history or fundamentals. how he compares anything to 2008 to 2011 I'll never know it's because he doesn't read I guess
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 17, 2021 6:07AM ET
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I .see that the video did not get to you. You can go to YouTube. Then search UNDERSTANDING GOLD the video is by YouTube subscriber Belangp. The picture on the heading of the video will show a bunch of gold coins. Okay I hope you get a lot out of the video have a good day
Sultan rival
Sultan rival Jun 17, 2021 5:20AM ET
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I see too many blind bulls in comments section, disagreeing an idea is one thing, humiliating someone for an idea is another. You may not agree with his ideas, but it doesnt make his reasons illogical, ofcourse inflation is high YOY , last year was deflationary + supply chain disruptions, but that doesnt mean there will be permanent inflation ( which is also probability) if someone looks gold chart it is obvious that it is very similar to 2011-2012 formation, rest may also be same... so instead following an idea blindly it is always beneficial to listen comtradictory ideas too
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Robert Milling
Rob1287 Jun 17, 2021 5:20AM ET
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The problem is he NEVER changes so what is the value??? I can stand in the desert and say every day it will rain, it will rain, it will rain. So after months and months of saying this, it rains. Do I celebrate my genius prediction ability?? Or am I just looking at the farmers almanac that says on average once or twice a year in the desert where I am it rains.
Robert Milling
Rob1287 Jun 17, 2021 5:20AM ET
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Anybody who thumbs down can show the last time the author was bullish on precious metals and how long he stayed bullish.
Sultan rival
Sultan rival Jun 17, 2021 5:20AM ET
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Robert Milling I didnt dislike but to be honest, since I am following him he is bearish gold and he was right, I am follıwing him like 9 months or sth
craig smith
craig smith Jun 17, 2021 5:20AM ET
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Sultan rival  It's OK to humiliate him because he's been trying to humiliate his gold bullish readers time and time again. He's basically been telling the gold bulls 'don't be fools buying into the gold bug crowd'...doing it every time he writes an article. I will continue to humiliate him as long as he implies that all of us gold bulls are fools. At least some of us gold bulls will get bearish from time to time, but he's ALWAYS BEARISH for some reason...probably a scam to get subscribers but its blown up in his face!
craig smith
craig smith Jun 17, 2021 5:20AM ET
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Robert Milling  You said it best! I think your description is spot on...good job.
Tubsy SkinntFinger
TubsSkinnyFinger Jun 17, 2021 5:10AM ET
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Real rates are down you goose.
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jun 17, 2021 5:08AM ET
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Funny man is back with his funny analysis again ,, expect the usual ,, fed goes hawkish ,, bond yields rise,, stocks crash , metals drop , when it gets a little serious fed intervenes and more money printing , dollar gets destroyed , metals to new highs ,,radomski gets riducled again and again ..
James Invest Outlook
James Invest Outlook Jun 17, 2021 1:54AM ET
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Thanks for sharing!
Sonia Jain
Sonia Jain Jun 17, 2021 12:57AM ET
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Awesum analysis and an excellent read👍🏻
Devin Phalen
Devin Phalen Jun 16, 2021 10:57PM ET
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Przemyslaw Radomski. Everyone is laughing at you. You’ve been wrong over and over and over. This is just another correction in a bull market.
florencia feitosa
florencia feitosa Jun 16, 2021 10:57PM ET
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correction? of gold returned to same place as last month, it broke all resistances, uptrend line, moving averages,
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 10:57PM ET
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florencia feitosa I .see that the video did not get to you. You can go to YouTube. Then search UNDERSTANDING GOLD the video is by YouTube subscriber Belangp. The picture on the heading of the video will show a bunch of gold coins. Okay I hope you get a lot out of the video have a good day
Bernd Langer
Bernd Langer Jun 16, 2021 10:30PM ET
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Really? GDX moving down to 21?? I don’t think so. I didn’t sell any of my bullion or mining stocks. I will keep adding on weakness. By end of the year, we will be back above 1900$ ...
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 6:42PM ET
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whoever is cheering here think about this. If you are about to jump in a time machine that brought you a hundred years forward into the future. do you want an ounce of gold or $1,800 to take with you? what about 10 years how about 5 years wait a second what about 5 months? think about that. 50 days is too long for me!
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florencia feitosa
florencia feitosa Jun 16, 2021 6:42PM ET
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random rx  haha. correction? correction does not make it go back to where it was a month ago.
florencia feitosa
florencia feitosa Jun 16, 2021 6:42PM ET
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Paul Miles  the drop was too big to go back up
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 6:42PM ET
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I .see that the video did not get to you. You can go to YouTube. Then search UNDERSTANDING GOLD the video is by YouTube subscriber Belangp. The picture on the heading of the video will show a bunch of gold coins. Okay I hope you get a lot out of the video. have a great day
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 6:42PM ET
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florencia feitosa you're right correction doesn't make it go back to where it was a month ago but consolidation does.
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 6:42PM ET
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florencia feitosa I .see that the video did not get to you. You can go to YouTube. Then search UNDERSTANDING GOLD the video is by YouTube subscriber Belangp. The picture on the heading of the video will show a bunch of gold coins. Okay I hope you get a lot out of the video have a good day
Ng trader
Ng trader Jun 16, 2021 4:45PM ET
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great analysis
florencia feitosa
florencia feitosa Jun 16, 2021 3:51PM ET
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now do you believe in the fall of gold??? he was right all along.
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Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 3:51PM ET
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nope he's been wrong all along including today. we're right back to where we were 4 weeks ago. I've been in gold for years and he's been wrong for years
florencia feitosa
florencia feitosa Jun 16, 2021 3:51PM ET
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Paul Miles  a month of ascent was destroyed in a single day. and you don't believe in the fall of gold? Fed destroyed the gold
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 3:51PM ET
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no because I look at as a buying opportunity. we have so much debt and consumption brought forward. fundamentally gold is a buy. you don't understand gold that's why you don't understand today. you're especially don't understand the paper market and leverage.
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 3:51PM ET
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also I posted a video for you hopefully it will get to you. I think they're screening it and I also believe it's something you need to watch. they are not my words in the video but it does help! granted I've been in Gold for a long time so days like today don't bother me. if you're just starting out watch the video and try to look at the big picture. and maybe follow the words in the video
Jonas Kvistfors
Jonas Kvistfors Jun 16, 2021 3:51PM ET
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Inflation will lift gold and silver regardless of industrial demand (which comes on top) your granchildren will Ask you why you did not buy gold when it was the price of a (future) lollipop......
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 2:28PM ET
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so you're saying in this article by GDX okay I did. okay your turn to cover. I'm starting to worry about your well-being
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 2:28PM ET
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*buy gdx
Robert Milling
Rob1287 Jun 16, 2021 2:00PM ET
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Hold it hold it. Let me guess. I didnt even read the article. Bearish right?? Am I right??  These articles are a joke.
Sultan rival
Sultan rival Jun 16, 2021 2:00PM ET
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But he seema to be right, from now on it will be very difficult to find gold buyers, from now on bonds may rise but what do I know ?
random rx
randomx Jun 16, 2021 2:00PM ET
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Sultan rival dude, we just want to make money. have you even read his articles? he said there was going to be a huge slide down back in march 2021. we are in june. true the market will correct soon enough but he said that "all bets are off if that happens". meaning, his analysis are not relying on that to predict his "huge downslide". but what will happen? he'll say "see? it fell just like i predicted"
Sultan rival
Sultan rival Jun 16, 2021 2:00PM ET
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random rx to be honest I am reading his articles , for like 6-9 months and he was mostly right describing big picture, but not good at timing, but again timing is very difficult. I also observed great analysts like Chris, Gareth fail gold price predictions, most of them were sayimg gold will be 2000s in March, never happened. Thing is that everyone has ideas and backed by reasons reasons are valid, but conditions define price action. So if you ask me it is both probabile that gold may fall or rise again, what will define it will be another asset classes, we will wait and see
Evander Renner
Evander Renner Jun 16, 2021 1:07PM ET
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What Precisely are u saying? I just can't get it. your analysis should be straight to point
Jan Buyle
Jan Buyle Jun 16, 2021 12:40PM ET
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I read your analysis for my amusement since March 2020. All your analysis turn out to be completely wrong. You predicted $9 silver, you missed it by 200%, you predicted $900 gold, missed it by 100%, you predicted bear market for miners just before they started a 100% + bull market. I love your comedy analysis. Keep producing them please!
Golden Nugget
Golden Nugget Jun 16, 2021 12:09PM ET
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Gold was 35 bucks an ounce 50 years ago. Quite the return if you ask me.
Paul Rejczak
Paul Rejczak Jun 16, 2021 12:09PM ET
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yeah, and what about some stocks..like buying MSFT in the eighties.. it all depends
Solomon Lalani
Solomon Jun 16, 2021 11:50AM ET
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Quite an extensive analysis! Thanks
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Jun 16, 2021 11:44AM ET
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I'm going to keep climbing the slope. because I understand fundamentals sadly you do not. I'll be communicating with you all the way until gold absorbs all these financial instruments which are comprised of debt and consumption brought forward I don't know how many years let's go with decades
Marco AP
Marco AP Jun 16, 2021 11:26AM ET
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over and over again, this guy consistently makes calls in the totally opposite direction. He seems to know what he's saying, but his opinion is heavily manipulated in the opposite direction. Stay away from this.
 
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