Gold for Monday, January 19, 2015
Gold has enjoyed a solid last three weeks which culminated in the strong surge higher to a four month high above $1280 to close out last week. In this time it was able to rally strongly from around $1170 back through the key $1200 level and to a 12 week high just above the $1240 level over the last few days before its surge higher at the end of last week. Despite this break, the $1240 level remains key as it has provided plenty of resistance over the last few months and is now likely to play a role should gold retreat back to it. At the beginning of last month gold eased lower away from the resistance level at $1240 yet again back down to below $1200. During the second half of November gold made repeated runs at the resistance level at $1200 failing every time, before finally breaking through strongly.
Throughout the first half of November gold enjoyed a strong resurgence back to the key $1200 level where it has met stiff resistance up until recently. Throughout the second half of October gold fell very strongly and resumed the medium term down trend falling from above $1250 back down through the key $1240 level, down below $1200 to a multi year low near $1130. It spent a few days consolidating around $1160 after the strong fall which has allowed it to rally higher in the last couple of weeks. Earlier in October gold ran into the previous key level at $1240, however it also managed to surge higher to a five week high at $1255.
In late August gold enjoyed a resurgence as it moved strongly higher off the support level at $1275, however it then ran into resistance at $1290. In the week prior, gold had been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275.
Gold settled higher on Friday as investors sought safety from volatility in wider markets after Switzerland unexpectedly abandoned a cap on the franc. After gaining 2.5 percent in the previous session, U.S. gold futures for delivery in February closed up $12.10, or 0.9 percent, at $1,276.90. That was its highest settlement since August 29. Spot gold rose 1.3 percent to its highest since Sept. 2 at $1,278.60 an ounce in earlier trade and was up 1.2 percent at $1,276 an ounce. The metal had posted its biggest daily gain in six weeks on Thursday, up 2.6 percent, after the Swiss National Bank’s move. It was heading for its biggest weekly jump since Aug. 2013, up around 4.5 percent. Gold’s move higher came despite a dollar up 0.7 percent against a basket of major currencies, which would normally hamper gains for the metal. Meanwhile, spot silver prices surged 5.5 percent to a 4-month high of $17.81 an ounce.
Gold January 19 at 00:15 GMT 1278.3 H: 1281.8 L: 1275.5
Gold Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1200 | 1170 | 1130 | 1280 | — | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, gold is trading in a narrow range around $1280 after surging higher to a four week high above there to close out last week. Current range: trading right around $1280.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1200, 1170 and 1130.
• Above: 1280.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for Gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for gold has moved below 50% as it has surged to a four month high above $1280 in the last day or so. The trader sentiment is ever so slightly in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 00:01 UK Rightmove House Price Index
- 00:30 AU New motor vehicle sales (Dec)
- 04:30 JP Capacity Utilisation (Nov)
- 04:30 JP Industrial Production (Final) (Nov)
- 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence (Dec)
- 09:00 EU Current Account (sa) (Nov)
- 11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends (19th-23rd) (Jan)
- EU EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels