Gold: October Peak Looks Like a Blind Bounce Amid Missing Data From the Shutdown

After evaluating movement of the gold futures on weekly charts along with gold’s CFTC speculative net positions since May 30, 2025, I find that these net weekly speculative positions were between 164K – 200 K in June, 2025 but abruptly found missing in Oct. 2025 due to US government shutdown which started from Oct. 1, 2025, and lasted for 43 days, but gold futures tested a record peak at $4398.75 on Oct. 20, 2025 which seems to be a blind bullish bounce only amid surging bullish sentiments.

Undoubtedly, this blind bullish move was sold by desperate bears, recognizing the absence of supportive data, and pushed gold futures to test the lows at $ 3,894.48 within eight days.

Once again, COT data started from Nov. 19, 2025, when the gold’s CFTC speculative net positions were 252.9K, followed by 232K, 203.9K in the preceding weeks in November, while 176.6K and 204.7K during the first two weeks of Dec.2025, and the next is to appear on Dec. 12, 2025.

Undoubtedly, the currently gold’s CFTC speculative net positions are near June-July level when the gold futures were consolidated below $3493 levels before finding a breakout in the first week of September while the gold’s CFTC speculative net positions were 249.5K, and continue to surge up to the last week of Sept. 26, 2025 to 266.7 K, simultaneously gold futures tested a high at $3920 in the last week of Nov. 2025, and then the data was stopped but the gold futures continued this rally on a blind path before testing a record peak even without any supportive CFTC data in October 2025.

Now, the upcoming CFTC speculative data will be announced on Dec. 12, 2025, after the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve in its December 9-10 meeting which will play a decisive role in deciding the further directional moves by the gold futures while the developments on geopolitical concerns will also be the significant factor till the next important even on Dec. 19, 2025 when the central bank of Japan is expected to hike the interest rates as recently hinted by Bank of Japan’s Governor Kazuo Ueda.

On Saturday, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said negotiations on consolidating the U.S.-backed truce in the war in Gaza are at a "critical" moment.

Mediators are working to advance the next phase of the ceasefire, al-Thani, whose country has been a key mediator in the war, said during a panel discussion at the Doha Forum conference in Qatar.

Violence has subsided but not stopped since the Gaza truce took effect on October 10, and at least seven people were reported killed on Saturday.

"We are at a critical moment. It’s not yet there. So, what we have just done is a pause," al-Thani said. "We cannot consider it yet a ceasefire. A ceasefire cannot be completed unless there is a full withdrawal of the Israeli forces - (until) there is stability back in Gaza, people can go in and out - which is not the case today."

Russian forces launched an overnight combined air strike on infrastructure in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk, causing power and water outages, its mayor Vitalii Maletskyi said on Sunday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that he had had a long and "substantive" phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

"Ukraine is determined to keep working in good faith with the American side to genuinely achieve peace. We agreed on the next steps and formats for talks with the United States," Zelenskiy said on X.

Witkoff and Kushner had held two days of talks with Ukraine’s senior negotiator Rustem Umerov in Miami this week, which both sides called "constructive discussions on advancing a credible pathway toward a durable and just peace in Ukraine". Witkoff had been expected to brief Umerov on his meeting in Moscow this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Zelenskiy said he was waiting for Umerov to give him a detailed report in person in Kyiv.

"Not everything can be discussed over the phone, so we need to work closely with our teams on ideas and proposals," Zelenskiy said. "Our approach is that everything must be workable – every crucial measure for peace, security, and reconstruction,"

I find that the Fed shouldn’t cut rates faster may hear that “if the Fed cuts rates too much, the economy could overheat, and the 10-year Treasury yield, not the Fed funds rate, drives mortgage borrowing costs, and warns that cutting too aggressively could push long-term yields higher.

Undoubtedly, World Gold Council (WGC) still sees further strong gains ahead, as investment demand, particularly via gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), would remain a key driver, offsetting weakness in other areas such as jewellery or technology.

"The combination of falling yields, elevated geopolitical stress, and a pronounced flight-to-safety would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold, supporting a sharp move higher. Under this scenario, gold could surge 15-30% in 2026 from current levels," the WGC report said.

I find that the markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, according to the CME Fed Watch tool, while the latest data in the U.S. bolstered sentiment toward a rate cut. Private payrolls shrank by 32,000 in November according to the ADP employment report - a notable downturn from October’s revised 47,000-job gain and far short of expectations for positive growth.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index showed modest expansion in November, but underlying data suggested cooling. Investors now await a more definitive signal from the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, due Friday, to better confirm how aggressive any rate cut might be.

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to establish food supply chain security task forces in the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to address risks from price fixing and anti-competitive behaviour, the White House said on Saturday.

I find that the opening levels of the next trading session and the follow-up moves after the Fed’s meeting will extend the indecisiveness next week, but the exhaustion is likely to extend ahead.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is only based on observations.