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Gold Is Testing Its 2011 High…

Published 07/10/2016, 03:03 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

...in Australian dollar terms.

The AUD-denominated gold price (gold/AUD) made a correction low in April of 2013, spent about 18 months forming a base and then resumed its long-term bull market in late-2014. It will probably soon make a new all-time high.

Gold:AUD Daily 2008-2016

It is useful to follow gold’s performance in terms of the more-junior currencies, for two main reasons. First, gold tends to bottom in terms of these currencies well before it bottoms in terms of the senior currency (the USD). Second, money can sometimes be made by owning the stocks of gold-mining companies operating in countries with relatively weak currencies even when the USD gold price is in a bearish trend.

A good example is Evolution Mining (AX:EVN), an Australia-based mid-tier gold producer that I’ve followed at TSI for the past few years. As illustrated by the following chart, EVN commenced a powerful upward trend in late-2014 after basing over the preceding 18 months (just like gold/AUD). It is now well above its 2011-2012 peak.

EVN Daily 2011-2016

As a gold bull market progresses, the more junior currencies and especially the commodity currencies begin to strengthen relative to the USD. This causes the mining companies with operations in the US to start doing relatively well.

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