Good Morning!
Busy day for reports starting with Business Inventories, Jobless Claims and Retail Sales at 7:30 A.M., EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 10:00 A.M., NOPA Crush at 11:00 A.M. and Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M. On the Corn front the market traded mostly quiet in a tight trading range while Open Interest moved up to 16,890 contracts in yesterday’s action. Also news of sales of Corn to Mexico with 212,000 tons supported this market. Harvest is not complete and the weather forecast for the next five days is not favorable and should keep farmers at bay to completion. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 369 ½, which is 2 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 370 to 366 ½.
On the Ethanol front we will have the Ethanol Production with the EIA data with estimates pegged at 1.055 million barrels with the range of analyst’s from 1.04 million barrels to 1.073 million barrels versus last week’s number of 1.068 million barrels. In the overnight electronic session the December Ethanol is currently trading at 1.279 which is .021 higher. The trading range has been 1.286 to 1.275. 58 contracts traded and Open Interest is at 1,586 contracts. The market is currently showing 2 bids @ 1.275 and 2 offers @ 1.278.
On the Crude Oil front the losing streak stopped in yesterday’s action. Last night’s API Energy Stocks showed builds in Crude Oil of 8.790 million barrels, Cushing up 726 thousand barrels, Gasoline stocks up 188 thousand barrels and Distillates down 3.224 million barrels. Gas prices will be dandy over Thanksgiving and we should see more drivers on the road for the holiday. What fears me most is going into winter with Distillates and Natural Gas supplies well below the one-year and five-year average. In the overnight electronic session the December Crude Oil is currently trading at 5632, which is 7 points higher. The trading range has been 5664 to 5559.
On the Natural Gas front as we enter a cold winter forecast and feeling early below-normal temperatures we have a delicate balance, but gas storage are well below year-ago levels and the five-year average and at an all-time low relative to consumption. If we have a mild winter we could trade into minis $3 MMBtu. While a cold winter could spell prices we have not seen in many years. Contributing to this story Amber Mc Cullagh. Today we have the weekly EIA Gas Storage and the Thomson Reuters poll with 19 analyst participating estimate injection builds from 20 bcf to 47 bcf with the median build of 32 bcf. This compares to ( DRAWS not BUILDS ) to the one-year withdrawal of 42 bcf and the five-year average withdrawal of 25 bcf. In the overnight electronic session the December Natural Gas is currently trading at 4.527, which is 31 cents lower. The trading range has been 4.800 to 4.456.
Have a Great Trading Day!