Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

Futures Follies: European Indices Looking Toppy; Commodities Still Rising

Published 03/29/2022, 01:06 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

I think my Virtual Trading Equity Curve pretty much tells the story: I peaked on March 14th and am down 70% since then (or about $400 billion). Hey, easy come, easy go. At least it’s fake! Let’s just say my real portfolio isn’t quite as aggressive.

Futures Chart

The thirty-two days since the February 24th bottom have left me somewhat shell-shocked, so I think I’m just going to now present an avalanche of futures charts. Below are fifteen interesting long-term continuous contracts, with a few words on each in the captions section. See you Tuesday!

Corn Futures

Corn continues to rage higher, peace or no peace. This is indicative of how much inflation is on the way (of course, the government conveniently leaves food out of their calculations).

Crude Oil Chart

Crude oil peaked on March 7th, and between peace in Ukraine and a deal with Iran, it seems the world may find itself drowning in oil in the months ahead, with a collapse in prices forthcoming.

Cotton Chart

Cotton is another good example of how inflation for everyday things is alive and well.

DAX Futures Chart

European equity markets, including Germany's DAX, look absolutely toppy which, paradoxically, may line up perfectly with newfound peace.

S&P 500 Futures Chart

The U.S. market is a much tougher read; if the /ES futures cross above that horizontal, it spells yet more bad news for the two or three surviving bears on the planet.

CAC 40 Futures Chart

France's CAC 40 is looking rock-solid toppy.

FDXM Chart

As is Germany.

FESX Chart

Here are the STOXX 50 Futures, which has the same topping pattern as just about every other European bourse.

Gold Chart

Gold has had about $200 blown off its shiny balls, but the bullish setup is unharmed.

JAU Gold Chart

And, measured in yen terms, gold is raging to lifetime highs (the Japanese yen is getting destroyed).

Lumber Chart

Lumber failed to beat its earlier top and is starting to weaken, probably coincident with bad prospects for homebuilding.

MSCI EAFE Index Futures Chart

Here’s an umpteenth example of toppy European equities, above the MSCI EAFE Index futures.

Oats Chart

And, likewise, an umpteenth example of food inflation, this time for oats, on the way.

US 30 Yr T-Bond Futures Chart

US Treasury Bonds, including 30-year futures may have broken a long-term uptrend, which could be a huge deal (and indicate vastly higher interest rates to come)

VIX Furtures Chart

Finally, volatility has been smothered to death in its own crib. Pretty sad!

I moved into more cash (and more gloom) and am standing at 26% now. I have morphed from “let ’em burn” mode to “let’s wait and see.” I continue to be shocked that the beginning of the war marked the precise bottom of the equity market, and I must wonder out loud if an official cease-fire deal will mark the top. Markets love throwing paradoxes.

Latest comments

Dude! Don't you look at anything besides charts?? I mean like strength indicators confirming bullish/bearish divergences at inflection points?? certainly they were present at the recent Major market lows and people were trying to tell you that in the comments section yet you only accelerated your gloom and doom at the exact bottoms?? wow.. pay some money to some real market technicians if you are going to be a swing trader especially if you're going to share something of real and consistent value to us!!!!
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.