I think my Virtual Trading Equity Curve pretty much tells the story: I peaked on March 14th and am down 70% since then (or about $400 billion). Hey, easy come, easy go. At least it’s fake! Let’s just say my real portfolio isn’t quite as aggressive.
Futures Chart
The thirty-two days since the February 24th bottom have left me somewhat shell-shocked, so I think I’m just going to now present an avalanche of futures charts. Below are fifteen interesting long-term continuous contracts, with a few words on each in the captions section. See you Tuesday!
continues to rage higher, peace or no peace. This is indicative of how much is on the way (of course, the government conveniently leaves food out of their calculations).
peaked on March 7th, and between peace in Ukraine and a deal with Iran, it seems the world may find itself drowning in oil in the months ahead, with a collapse in prices forthcoming.
is another good example of how inflation for everyday things is alive and well.
European equity markets, including Germany's , look absolutely toppy which, paradoxically, may line up perfectly with newfound peace.
The U.S. market is a much tougher read; if the / cross above that horizontal, it spells yet more bad news for the two or three surviving bears on the planet.
France's is looking rock-solid toppy.
As is .
Here are the , which has the same topping pattern as just about every other European bourse.
has had about $200 blown off its shiny balls, but the bullish setup is unharmed.
And, measured in , gold is raging to lifetime highs (the is getting destroyed).
failed to beat its earlier top and is starting to weaken, probably coincident with bad prospects for homebuilding.
MSCI EAFE Index Futures Chart Here’s an umpteenth example of toppy European equities, above the .
And, likewise, an umpteenth example of food inflation, this time for , on the way.
US 30 Yr T-Bond Futures Chart US Treasury Bonds, including may have broken a long-term uptrend, which could be a huge deal (and indicate vastly higher interest rates to come)
Finally, has been smothered to death in its own crib. Pretty sad!
I moved into more cash (and more gloom) and am standing at 26% now. I have morphed from “let ’em burn” mode to “let’s wait and see.” I continue to be shocked that the beginning of the war marked the precise bottom of the equity market, and I must wonder out loud if an official cease-fire deal will mark the top. Markets love throwing paradoxes.
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