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Futures Follies: European Indices Looking Toppy; Commodities Still Rising

By Tim KnightStock MarketsMar 29, 2022 01:06AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/futures-follies-european-indices-looking-toppy-commodities-still-rising-200621026
Futures Follies: European Indices Looking Toppy; Commodities Still Rising
By Tim Knight   |  Mar 29, 2022 01:06AM ET
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I think my Virtual Trading Equity Curve pretty much tells the story: I peaked on March 14th and am down 70% since then (or about $400 billion). Hey, easy come, easy go. At least it’s fake! Let’s just say my real portfolio isn’t quite as aggressive.

Futures Chart
Futures Chart

The thirty-two days since the February 24th bottom have left me somewhat shell-shocked, so I think I’m just going to now present an avalanche of futures charts. Below are fifteen interesting long-term continuous contracts, with a few words on each in the captions section. See you Tuesday!

Corn Futures
Corn Futures

Corn continues to rage higher, peace or no peace. This is indicative of how much inflation is on the way (of course, the government conveniently leaves food out of their calculations).

Crude Oil Chart
Crude Oil Chart

Crude oil peaked on March 7th, and between peace in Ukraine and a deal with Iran, it seems the world may find itself drowning in oil in the months ahead, with a collapse in prices forthcoming.

Cotton Chart
Cotton Chart

Cotton is another good example of how inflation for everyday things is alive and well.

DAX Futures Chart
DAX Futures Chart

European equity markets, including Germany's DAX, look absolutely toppy which, paradoxically, may line up perfectly with newfound peace.

S&P 500 Futures Chart
S&P 500 Futures Chart

The U.S. market is a much tougher read; if the /ES futures cross above that horizontal, it spells yet more bad news for the two or three surviving bears on the planet.

CAC 40 Futures Chart
CAC 40 Futures Chart

France's CAC 40 is looking rock-solid toppy.

FDXM Chart
FDXM Chart

As is Germany.

FESX Chart
FESX Chart

Here are the STOXX 50 Futures, which has the same topping pattern as just about every other European bourse.

Gold Chart
Gold Chart

Gold has had about $200 blown off its shiny balls, but the bullish setup is unharmed.

JAU Gold Chart
JAU Gold Chart

And, measured in yen terms, gold is raging to lifetime highs (the Japanese yen is getting destroyed).

Lumber Chart
Lumber Chart

Lumber failed to beat its earlier top and is starting to weaken, probably coincident with bad prospects for homebuilding.

MSCI EAFE Index Futures Chart
MSCI EAFE Index Futures Chart

Here’s an umpteenth example of toppy European equities, above the MSCI EAFE Index futures.

Oats Chart
Oats Chart

And, likewise, an umpteenth example of food inflation, this time for oats, on the way.

US 30 Yr T-Bond Futures Chart
US 30 Yr T-Bond Futures Chart

US Treasury Bonds, including 30-year futures may have broken a long-term uptrend, which could be a huge deal (and indicate vastly higher interest rates to come)

VIX Furtures Chart
VIX Furtures Chart

Finally, volatility has been smothered to death in its own crib. Pretty sad!

I moved into more cash (and more gloom) and am standing at 26% now. I have morphed from “let ’em burn” mode to “let’s wait and see.” I continue to be shocked that the beginning of the war marked the precise bottom of the equity market, and I must wonder out loud if an official cease-fire deal will mark the top. Markets love throwing paradoxes.

Futures Follies: European Indices Looking Toppy; Commodities Still Rising
 

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Futures Follies: European Indices Looking Toppy; Commodities Still Rising

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Comments (1)
John Bozanich
John Bozanich Mar 29, 2022 8:01PM ET
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Dude! Don't you look at anything besides charts?? I mean like strength indicators confirming bullish/bearish divergences at inflection points?? certainly they were present at the recent Major market lows and people were trying to tell you that in the comments section yet you only accelerated your gloom and doom at the exact bottoms?? wow.. pay some money to some real market technicians if you are going to be a swing trader especially if you're going to share something of real and consistent value to us!!!!
 
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