Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will end up raising interest rates four times this year, but are unlikely to signal that intention at this week’s policy meeting, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Projections for Upper Bound, currently at 1.5%:
Meeting Median Estimate December Survey
March 21, 2018 1.75% 1.75%
May 2, 2018 1.75% 1.75%
June 13, 2018 2.00% 1.75%
Aug. 1, 2018 2.00% 1.75%
Sept. 26, 2018 2.25% 2.00%
Nov. 8, 2018 2.25% 2.00%
Dec. 19, 2018 2.5% 2.25%
Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data still weaker than expected.
In our previous analysis we expected a re-test of 1.22 area with chances to fall below 1.217 Demand area, and this happened. Now the overbought in area 1.2385 is pushing prices down to that level again.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trend lines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2385
2nd Resistance: 1.2552
1st Support: 1.2170
2nd Support: 1.2080
Eyes on today UK CPI (Inflation) data.
U.S. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in February and was up 1.8% from a year earlier, also in line with the consensus forecast.
Last UK Manufacturing PMI data confirmed a disappointing trend.
May wants financial services to be included in a free trade deal - something she believes it is still possible to achieve despite accusations from Brussels that her approach amounts to 'cherry picking' the best bits of the EU.
Test on 1.4125, important Supply Area is very likely to occur.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.4125
2nd Resistance: 1.4315
1st Support: 1.3921
2nd Support: 1.3750
U.S. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in February and was up 1.8% from a year earlier, also in line with the consensus forecast.
Recently, the Fed signaled its confidence about inflation and growth in the U.S. The Fed said that inflation is likely to rise this year, boosting expectations for further interest rate hikes under incoming central bank head Jerome Powell.
Australia GDP data ticked down again. Also last Australia Retail sales came poorer than expected, while RBA kept interest rates unchanged.
Australia construction work done relevantly lower than expectations. Last Australia CPI (inflation release) ticked down. Also last Australia GDP data were worse than expected, deteriorating the hopes of a future hawkish RBA behavior.
After the re-test of 0.7916 area we expected a crash down to 0.783 area again. And this occurred before the little bounce. Now, another violation of 0.7828 level is triggering a long-term bearish cycle.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7680
2nd Support: 0.7620