Yesterday’s Trading:
The euro on Friday updated the week’s maximum due to demand for the currency in the cross pairs. After the release of strong American labor market data, the buyers’ position began to waver. The euro weakened against the dollar by one figure to 1.1334 on the news, and from here it was snapped up. Trades closed slightly up.
Job creation - nonfarm payrolls - in the US during March stood at 215k (forecasted: 205k). January’s figure was reassessed from 172k to 168k and February’s from 242k to 245k. Unemployment was up 0.1% to 5.0% (forecasted: 4.9%, previous: 4.9%). Average hourly earnings for the US in March were up 0.3% (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: -0.1%).
Market Expectations:
On Monday I don’t bother looking at the planned economic data. On my forecast I’ve gone for a weakening of the euro against the US dollar to 1.1350, due to a downward correction of the euro/pound cross.
Until the price drops below 1.1334 (Friday’s minimum), a fall to 1.1350 will be seen as a correction against the growth from 1.1143 to 1.1437.
From April 1st, the ECB extended its QE program in which it will purchase bonds, including corporate ones. The Bank’s actions will have a negative effect on the euro.
Day’s News:
- 11:30, UK business activeness index in the construction sector for March;
- 12:00, Eurozone February unemployment;
- 17:00, US manufacturing orders for February and labour market conditions for March;
- 17:30, Bank of Canada quarterly review of economic conditions and business development prospects.
Technical Analysis:
A double bear divergence has formed on the hourly chart. The target on it is 1.1310. Along the way the sellers will meet an important level: 1.1350. If they are able to strengthen below it, then 1.1310 will not hold. Closing of long positions in the crosses will only worsen the situation in the main pair. As a result, the euro will crash like the pound. Today’s target is 1.1350, then we will have a look at the situation.
