The ECB interest rate decision and Mario Draghi speech propelled EUR/USD ~90 pips upwards at 1.1701 from its day low 1.1609. The interest rate remained unchanged but Draghi announced a softening of its quantitative easing program. That in conjunction with the US CPI disappointing figure, below forecast, but in line with the PPI results. All eyes are now on the release of retail sales tomorrow.
On the technical side, the price follows an expanding triangle structure after it exited the upwards channel at the end of August. It is a complex ABC pattern of the 2nd corrective wave (EW 5-3, daily chart). Consequently, following Today's events, it appears the price reached the upper limit of the expanding triangle and so should make a U-turn. Next stop for medium-term traders is 1.1500 or lower.
In October, the price will most probably make a new higher high within the triangle which will be a value higher than 1.1734 and also the beginning of the 3rd impulse wave (daily chart). In my opinion, the wave will stop at the lower limit of the expanding triangle and either make a truncation or dip a little below the low made by the 2nd impulse wave (~1.1300).
