EUR/USD traded higher on Monday, breaking above the downside resistance line drawn from the high of June 10th. On top of that, the rate continues to trade above the upside support line drawn from the low of May 14th, which combined with the aforementioned break paints a somewhat positive near-term outlook.
At the time of writing, the pair is testing the 1.1300 hurdle, a break above which would make us more comfortable with regards to more upside. Such a break may initially allow the bulls to aim for the 1.1353 level, marked as resistance by the high of June 23rd, the break of which may extend the advance towards the high of June 10th, at 1.1423.
Looking at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI lies above 50 and points up, while the MACD stands above both its zero and trigger lines, pointing north as well. Both indicators detect positive momentum and support the notion for some more advances in the near term.
In order to start examining the bearish case, we prefer to wait for a decisive dip below the 1.1190 zone, which provided strong support between June 25th and July 1st. This would also take the rate below the upside line taken from the low of May 14th, and may trigger declines towards the 1.1140, which acted as a resistance between May 29th and June 2nd. Another break, below 1.1140, could extend the decline towards the 1.1080 territory, defined as a support by an intraday swing low formed on May 29th.