Breaking News
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

EURUSD Mulls 200-day MA, USDJPY Ponders 100

By Saxo BankForexJul 02, 2013 07:39AM ET,-usdjpy-ponders-100-173759
EURUSD Mulls 200-day MA, USDJPY Ponders 100
By Saxo Bank   |  Jul 02, 2013 07:39AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
Today is a day for relative quiet ahead of the storm of event risks that pick up with tomorrow’s key US data and then continues through the end of the week. Tonight sees significant input for AUD traders.

Yesterday’s slightly stronger than expected ISM manufacturing failed to do much for the greenback, as more important inputs for the market await in the form of tomorrow’s ISM non-manufacturing and the Friday employment report. EURUSD rejected an attempt at the 200-day moving average close to 1.3075 this morning (thus far at least – ranges are tight) and USDJPY had a sniff near the 100.00 level after a relatively upbeat Asian session despite Wall Street limping into the close yesterday. The Nikkei has managed an impressive 1000+ points over the last four trading days.

The RBA meeting overnight was rather dovish, but failed to surprise significantly as there was no actual rate cut, which a small minority of observers were expecting. The statement complained that the Australian dollar remains too strong – and that the inflation outlook provides scope for further easing, should that be necessary. The reaction was fairly immediate as the Aussie sold off, but the currency has come back a bit in Europe and is finding some support in term. There was no real reaction in rate markets or the STIRs, so the market will be looking for further developments and I wonder if the potential for a near-term Aussie squeeze is building. Tonight’s data will likely provide a clue, and there’s no evidence just yet in the likes of AUDNZD, which plunged back close to the lows for the cycle near 1.1750 overnight.

The 100.00 area is double significant because of the psychology of that level (remember the extensive tease near there just after the watershed April 3-4 BoJ meeting) and because it is the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the move from the 103.75 top to the 93.80 low.
<span class=
USD/JPY" width="455" height="349" />
Looking ahead
Tonight’s data out of Australia might be more important for the direction of Aussie than last night’s RBA decision, as we have both key Chinese services industry survey data and Australia Trade, Retail Sales and New Home Sales data as well as a survey of its services industry. That latter survey in May saw its weakest level since April of last year and was the second-lowest reading since early 2009.

Elsewhere, it’s all about those significant levels for EURUSD (1.3075/80) and USDJPY (100.00), which are important pivot areas for the action for the balance of the week. And in EURGBP, it’s about 0.8600 and whether that level holds on the other side of the ECB/BoE meetings on Thursday.

If you missed it late yesterday, please see my brief post highlighting all of the 2013 ECB meetings on a EURUSD chart - and showing how often these meetings prove critical for the subsequent action in the currency pair.

Economic Data Highlights
  • Australia RBA left Cash Target unchanged at 2.75% as strong majority expected
  • Spain Jun. Unemployment Change out at -127.2k vs. -100k expected and -98.3k in May
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
  • UK Jun. Construction PMI (0830)
  • Euro Zone May PPI (0900)
  • UK BoE’s Tucker, Bailey speaking (0900)
  • US Jun. ISM New York (1345)
  • US May Factory Orders (1400)
  • US Fed’s Dudley to Speak (1630)
  • US Weekly API Crude Oil and Product Inventories (2030)
  • US Jun. Vehicle Sales (2100)
  • Australia Jun. AiG Performance of Service Index (2330)
  • China Jun. Non-manufacturing PMI (0100)
  • Australia May HIA New Home Sales (0100)
  • Australia May Trade Balance (0130)
  • Australia May Retail Sales (0130)
  • China Jun. HSBC Services PMI (0145)
EURUSD Mulls 200-day MA, USDJPY Ponders 100

Related Articles

Scott Barkley
AUD/USD Continuation Trade By Scott Barkley - Jun 21, 2021

Bullish for nowUSDX is possibly correcting FOMC last week at the time of this post. Two scenarios: Bullish: A move to the ATR Target at 0.7555 area) or to the 0.382 Fibo at 0.7569...

Kenny Fisher
Swiss Franc Slips To 9-Week Low By Kenny Fisher - Jun 21, 2021

The Swiss franc has posted slight losses to start the week. In North American trade, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9209, down 0.16% on the day.Swiss franc slides as Fed signals tighter...

EURUSD Mulls 200-day MA, USDJPY Ponders 100

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email