EUR/USD has edged lower in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2365, down 0.20% on the day. On the release front, German Final CPI posted a gain of 0.5%, matching the forecast. This was a strong improvement from the previous reading of -0.7%. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at an ECB conference in Frankfurt. In the US, Retail Sales is expected to improve to 0.3%, while PPI is forecast to slow to 0.1%. On Thursday, the US release employment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Eurozone manufacturing indicators for January are pointing to contraction. Eurozone Industrial Change declined 1.0% in January, its sharpest drop since December 2016. The estimate stood at -0.4%. Last week, German numbers disappointed. Factory Orders in January plunged 3.9%, worse than the estimate of -1.9%. This marked the second decline in the past three months. This was followed by a decline of 0.1% from Industrial Production, marking a second straight decline. The reading was well off the forecast of 0.6%. The latest numbers are somewhat surprising as the German economy remains very strong, and has led the way as eurozone economy continues to expand.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates next week. According to the CME Group, the odds of a quarter-point raise stand at 89 percent. What can we expect from the Fed during the year? The pressing question how many rate hikes we will in 2018? The current Fed projection remains at three hikes, but the superb nonfarm payrolls report last week has raised speculation that the Fed could accelerate the pace to four hikes, which would be good news for the US dollar. Investors will be keeping a close eye on key US data, especially inflation indicators. If these numbers improve, we’re likely to see four rate hikes in 2018.
Wednesday (March 14)
Thursday (March 15)
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Wednesday, March 14, 2018
EUR/USD for March 14 at 6:40 EDT
Open: 1.2390 High: 1.2413 Low: 1.2361 Close: 1.2365
EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian session but has reversed directions and is moving downwards in European trade
Further levels in both directions:
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Wednesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (61%), indicative of EUR/USD continuing to move to lower ground.
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