Euro Slides As Inflation Jumps

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher)ForexJul 01, 2022 10:28AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/euro-slides-as-inflation-jumps-200626584

Euro Slides As Inflation Jumps

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher) | Jul 01, 2022 10:28AM ET

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The EUR/USD is sharply lower on Friday and is currently trading just above the 1.04 line, down 0.76%.

Eurozone inflation outperforms

Eurozone CPI for June was higher than expected, at 8.6% YoY. The estimate stood at 8.4% and inflation rose sharply from the May reading of 8.1%. This marked a record-high. There was better news from the core reading, which dropped marginally to 3.7% YoY, down from 3.8% in May. Investors have given the inflation data a thumbs-down today and sent the euro tumbling ahead of the weekend.

With inflation continuing to accelerate and the ECB revising downwards its growth forecast, the specter of stagflation in the bloc remains very real. The ECB is no doubt dismayed that inflation was higher than expected, but it’s unclear if the record-high CPI release will be enough to deliver a supersize 0.50% hike for its lift-off next month. At this week’s ECB forum, ECB head Lagarde talked tough and downplayed concerns over a recession, but there are plenty of dark clouds hovering above the eurozone economy. High inflation, weak growth and the energy crisis with Russia mean that there is certainly good reason to be concerned about a significant downturn in the eurozone economy.

In the US, there are worrying signs that the economy is weakening. US Personal Spending fell to 0.3%, down from 0.6% (0.4% exp.). Inflation appears to be declining slowly and the labour market is in solid shape. CME’s FedWatch is putting the likelihood of a supersize 0.75% rate increase at 75%, as markets expect the Fed to remain aggressive against inflation. Can a recession be avoided? Fed Chair Powell is saying all the right things in downplaying concerns about the “R” word, but many market participants have their doubts and feel that the US economy will not be able to avoid a recession.

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0408. The next support level is at 1.0346
There is resistance at 1.0482 and 1.0544

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

2.50%

Sep 21, 2022

ECB

0.50%

Sep 08, 2022

BOE

1.75%

Sep 15, 2022

SNB

-0.25%

Sep 22, 2022

RBA

1.85%

Sep 06, 2022

BOC

2.50%

Sep 07, 2022

RBNZ

2.50%

Aug 17, 2022

BOJ

-0.10%

Sep 22, 2022

CBR

8.00%

Sep 16, 2022

RBI

5.40%

Sep 30, 2022

PBOC

2.75%

BCB

13.75%

Sep 21, 2022

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Euro Slides As Inflation Jumps

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