FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
On 1.05 EUR/USD will take off losses of buyers and go back to 1.08/09
Last month oil prices felt from 53 to 49 and lost over 10%, that’s why march “US Core CPI” of this Friday will not increase or lost 0.1 point (5% of gasoline spending), that will slows down expectations against Fed % increasing. Same time Trump still do not have any solutions how to decrease budget deficit and this weekends meeting with Chinese president Xi Jingping was unsuccessful.
Trump still not said anything about tax policy and his battle with congress increasing fears that we will not hear anything for a long time, that’s also decreasing optimism about dollar. Euro zone still have neutral economic situation, so from 1.05 eur/usd will find very strong support, when same time dollar index is almost got main resistance on 101.5, from that will fall on 99.70.
Main attention of few next weeks will be chained to elections in French, that’s starts on April 23 and can have prolongation, if will need second tour. Chance of Le Pen win is too low, so she will not have it and after her losing euro will got benefit in rising against dollar over 1-2% and this fact will be last decisive reason when eur/usd will start uptrend to 1.08 – 1.10.
Gold will be in range 1244 – 1263 before election, but then possible will drops to 1230 or even 1208
Escalation of conflict with Syria do not play any influence on US, so no reason to expect that this situation will made any pressure on dollar or gold, that’s why break up of resistance 1264 was fake, but losses of buyers some-one is got… Main risk now for market, that he is including in current price, is French election and after Mary Le Pen losing gold will lost this pressure and will fall down on middle support 1230 or even on main 1208 (of course if closer to this time dollar will not got some bad news from Trump).
Oil will drops to $49 after OPEC report
This Wednesday we have OPEC report, that will not bring anything new to the market. Cartel can decrease supply on the market only on meeting in May, but before this numbers will be old. Same time supply from US market is continue increasing, that will continue to made pressure on price.
Spring is coming and demand can be increased, but its will be seen only if “crude oil inventories” start to go in negative zone, that we still can’t see and if Wednesday news again will be positive, oil prices start strong downtrend to support $49.
TECHNICAL FORECAST
EUR/USD
Uptrend scenario:
An uptrend will start from accumulation of support levels 1.05 - 1.0560, after that will go on resistance 1.0670 and 1.08 - 1.0950.
Downtrend scenario:
An downtrend now is continue with target on support levels 1.05 - 1.0560 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.04.
GOLD
Uptrend scenario:
An uptrend will start from support level 1244, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1263.
Downtrend scenario:
An downtrend now is going to support level 1244 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1229.
US CRUDE OIL
Uptrend scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 53, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 54.3.
Downtrend scenario:
An downtrend is already started from resistance 53, which will be followed by reaching support level 49.
