Swedish household lending data is due to be released today. Lending for housing purposes will be of particular interest, as the latest print (September) of 8.2% y/y was a bit lower than the peak in May at 8.7%. Depending on which stance you take, you could either point to the fact that lending growth is slowing down a bit, or go with the Riksbank's view that lending continues to outpace income growth.
In the UK, we look forward to the release of the second estimate of GDP growth in Q3. While we do not expect any revision to the first growth estimate of 0.5%, we will focus on the GDP subcomponents. Most interesting is how investment performed in the first quarter after the EU vote. We think private consumption growth continued, broadly speaking, at the same pace as before the EU vote.
The week concludes with the preliminary US Markit PMI service index for November on Friday. The index has been right about lower growth in H1 and has been less volatile than the ISM non-manufacturing index, which has jumped up and down recently. The index increased to 54.8 in October, which together with solid levels for the ISM non-manufacturing index is a good sign that growth will be solid in H2. We believe the Markit PMI service index will stay around its current level in November, suggesting that the service sector is growing at a solid pace.
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