Market movers today
After yesterday's bold move by the ECB in which Draghi announced a long-awaited QE programme, focus will be on digesting and assessing the details.
Otherwise it is Big PMI Day. We expect the euro-area manufacturing PMI to have increased from 50.6 to 50.9 in January. The improvements in both the German ZEW and IFO expectations suggest euro-area PMIs will move higher in coming months but the Greek election could have weighed on sentiment.
We expect US PMI to have stayed broadly unchanged at 54.0 (in line with consensus), which is consistent with GDP growth around 2.5% q/q AR. The recent mixed US data have created some uncertainty about the strength of the recovery and a sizeable surprise in either direction is likely to have a larger-than-usual market impact.
Sunday is election day in Greece. The most recent polls show that the anti-austerity party Syriza will win the election but fall short of an outright majority. Uncertainty is thus likely to stay with us for some time until we know to what extent the new government is willing to cooperate with its European partners.
Focus on the Scandi impact of ECB QE.
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