EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1614; (P) 1.1645 (R1) 1.1690;
EUR/USD’s consolidation pattern from 1.1509 is still in progress and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1507/9 will resume the whole fall from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3220; (P) 1.3301; (R1) 1.3343;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.3381. Deeper pull back could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3200) and below. But downside should be contained above 1.2948 support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 should target 1.3685 medium term fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, current development solidify the view of bullish trend reversal. That is fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.2916 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
