I’ve mentioned a few times about “Bitcoin at about 40k” and “Ethereum at about 3k” with respect to the so-called Animal Spirits exhausting themselves and reversing.
Well, Bitcoin has exceeded this figure significantly enough to dispatch with the entire motion of a head and shoulders reversal. I still think it’s in a bear market (the downtrend has been in place for months, and the lower lows/lower highs is absolutely in place), but a hearty reversal around $40k simply isn’t going to take place.
The same argument holds for Ethereum, although the push into its topping pattern hasn’t been as severe.
I will say, however, with respect to the crypto scene, that it does seem very, very close to an exhaustion point. Perhaps some “whales” have pushed the hyper-visible BTC and ETH higher, but if you look under the surface, the alt-coins looking ready to barf.
To be clear, I am not talking my book here. I have no book. No crypto holdings for months. But I am talking my book inasmuch as I’m a raving equity bear, and a resumption of crypto weakness would help feed the environment of fear and capitulation in which I so merrily thrive.