CFTC Report: The FX Long And Short Of It

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for data through the 26th of November, speculators hold the largest Net Short Position with the Japanese Yen and also maintain Net Short positions with Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar and now with the Euro too while they hold Net Long Positions with the British pound and the Swiss franc against the US dollar. The US dollar index still remains in neutral zone in the 81.45/80.44 flag trading pattern.

The EUR bias turn bearish as net position goes negative for the first time after July 2013, with an outstanding w/w change of $-1.6B reflecting ECB’s rate cut and comments on negative deposit rates. The CAD and AUD remain bearish and at the same time the Japanese Yen increased its net short substantially for one more week by $1.2B against the US dollar. The GBP Net position becomes positive following its exchange rate uptrend coupled with the Swiss franc increasing its Net Long slightly by $138M.



Commodity Currencies
Net Short positioning on Canadian dollar increased with w/w change falling by $1.16B and the Net short reaching $-2.7B, the sentiment remains bearish.


The Australian dollar Net Short positioning, despite the dovish comments by members of RBA, declined slightly by $20M against the US dollar to a standing Net Short of $3B.

European Currencies
The greatest w/w change of net positioning has been on the Euro and has been to the short side. The previous overall long position eliminated as the w/w change was $-1.6B and the Euro speculative Net position is Short by $-73M. The Euro net positioning deteriorates for the fifth consecutive week, reflecting ECB rate cut and speculation of negative deposit rate. The bearish sentiment remains firm, the exchange rate trend is neutral though.


The British pound Net Short position on the other hand was disappeared for data until the 26th of November changing weekly by $207M and turning Net Long by $207M. Bullish bias prevails now in the GBP coupled with freshly made 2-year highs against the US dollar.





The Net Long position on the Swiss franc widened slightly this week by $138M to $641M, sentiment remains bullish but the exchange rate trend is now neutral.



Asian Currencies

The Yen firmly keeps the leadership by holding the largest Net Short position against the US dollar and further widened its short side reaching by Nov.26 a record low at $-15.2B, w/w change was at $-1.2B the second largest decline after EUR. Bias on the Japanese Yen remains negative but at extreme levels, its trend is also negative against the US dollar