Small caps, as measured by IWM, are key for the fall and into 2024.
You can also look at SML S&P 600.
IWM could be forming an inverted head and shoulders bottom going back from the start of 2023. (See the rectangle area of the IWM chart)
SPY QQQs, on the other hand, could be forming a head and shoulders top. (See the rectangle area of the QQQ chart).
If this does not tell you where we are at--equal potential to see IWM lead us up if clears back over 190 or-
A more significant down move if fails 180 under the pressure of QQQs should they fail the head and shoulders neckline.
Our MarketGauge quant models are aside in small-cap all-stars yet long small-cap earnings growth.
This means that the strength is in the stocks that have merit based on earnings and are not as correlated to the indexes.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) 440 now back to pivotal
- Russell 2000 (IWM) Popped off the key support. 185 pivotal
- Dow (DIA) Will watch to see if it can back over 347
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 363 pivotal
- Regional banks (KRE) Still needs to get back over 44 to be convincing
- Semiconductors (SMH) 150 back to pivotal
- Transportation (IYT) 239 still support to hold with 252 biggest overhead resistance
- Biotechnology (IBB) Compression between 124-130
- Retail (XRT) Has been and remains to be an underperformer and concern going forward.