- Chinese trade data only a temporary distraction
- Recovery not as bullish as it first appears
- Divergence a red flag
Oil prices are advancing again today after briefly dipping on Tuesday following some weaker Chinese trade figures.
While that data did appear to trigger some profit-taking in crude, it was never going to be a game-changer as oil market dynamics have turned much more bullish recently.
Furthermore, weak global trade and an uninspiring Chinese rebound this year are not new stories. The numbers were naturally disappointing but nothing more. That the price recovered from the lows yesterday, following a quite large decline, to end the day in the green says everything you need to know.
Price making new highs but red flags are appearing
From a technical perspective, it’s not completely out of the woods yet despite recovering well.
Momentum is still an issue and it has been waning over the last week or so even as price has made new highs. This could be a sign of exhaustion and unless that changes, these sell-offs will remain a concern and the rebounds unconvincing.
Brent Daily
Source – OANDA on Trading View
The stochastic and MACD histogram both failed to make new highs last week alongside the price creating a divergence. In itself, that’s not necessarily bearish but it is a red flag and indicates the trend is weakening. With the price now approaching $87-$88, an area that has been a significant zone of resistance this year, it may come as a concern.
Of course, momentum could return again and confirm the moves that we’re seeing in the price but as it stands, it’s lacking. The move above the 200/233-day simple moving average band was a very positive move but Brent is up more than 20% since the end of June so a corrective move wouldn’t come as a major surprise.