Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
💎 Access the Market Tools Trusted by Thousands of Investors Get Started

Bond Market Calling Fed

By Ashraf LaidiBondsJan 22, 2022 11:58PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/bond-market-calling-fed-200615599
Bond Market Calling Fed
By Ashraf Laidi   |  Jan 22, 2022 11:58PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
 
XAU/USD
-0.20%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
XAG/USD
+0.13%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
US500
+0.01%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
Gold
-0.41%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
Silver
-0.76%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
BTC/USD
-1.11%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 

Does the chart below suggest yields have topped for now? A weekly candle that fails to close below the 200-WMA after testing it for the 1st time in nearly 2 years could be a tell.

Bonds have often foretold shifts by the Fed—policy reversals, or hard stops in this case. The US yield curve started flattening 12 months after the end of the 2020 recession. The 10-2 curve never began flattening so soon and so deep after the end of a recession. This only highlights the unsustainable and illusory nature of the past 24 months.

A prolonged drop in yields next week could accompany a catch-down by the S&P 500 and DOW30 with its Tech peer and print their own 10% drawdown at 4300 and 33000 respectively.

Falling yields could be brought about by a sudden turn to the worse on the Russia-Ukraine front. More realistically, it could result from Fed Chair Powell sounding unfazed by the market turmoil on Wednesday's FOMC presser, as the curve flattens further. Think about it.

Bitcoin meanwhile, could well retest the $30K support level, but the recovery should emerge faster and more "violently" than the March decline of 2021. Finally, gold and silver continue to do everything "right" so far. 

US 10 Yr Yield Weekly Chart
US 10 Yr Yield Weekly Chart

Bond Market Calling Fed
 

Related Articles

Bond Market Calling Fed

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email