Bond Market Calling Fed

By Ashraf LaidiBondsJan 22, 2022 11:58PM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/bond-market-calling-fed-200615599

Bond Market Calling Fed

By Ashraf Laidi | Jan 22, 2022 11:58PM ET

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Does the chart below suggest yields have topped for now? A weekly candle that fails to close below the 200-WMA after testing it for the 1st time in nearly 2 years could be a tell.

Bonds have often foretold shifts by the Fed—policy reversals, or hard stops in this case. The US yield curve started flattening 12 months after the end of the 2020 recession. The 10-2 curve never began flattening so soon and so deep after the end of a recession. This only highlights the unsustainable and illusory nature of the past 24 months.

A prolonged drop in yields next week could accompany a catch-down by the S&P 500 and DOW30 with its Tech peer and print their own 10% drawdown at 4300 and 33000 respectively.

Falling yields could be brought about by a sudden turn to the worse on the Russia-Ukraine front. More realistically, it could result from Fed Chair Powell sounding unfazed by the market turmoil on Wednesday's FOMC presser, as the curve flattens further. Think about it.

Bitcoin meanwhile, could well retest the $30K support level, but the recovery should emerge faster and more "violently" than the March decline of 2021. Finally, gold and silver continue to do everything "right" so far.

US 10 Yr Yield Weekly Chart

$40 Billion In Wrong Bond Fund Past 2 Years, Says Joe Friday By Chris Kimble - Sep 22, 2023

When treasury bond yields are rising, bond prices are falling. It’s an inverse relationship. And so it makes sense that the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has...

Treasury Market Plays Catch-Up With Higher-for-Longer Risk By James Picerno - Sep 22, 2023

The collective wisdom of the bond market for much of this year has been betting that interest rates would soon peak and fall. But those bets appear to be unwinding in the wake of...

Fed Leads Investors Into Bonds Amid Stock Market Uncertainty, Higher... By Francesco Casarella - Sep 22, 2023

Stocks are tanking as markets price in higher for longer scenario Meanwhile, bonds have declined for 2 years in a row and are on track for a third bearish year As economic weakness...

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Nov 02, 2023

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Oct 03, 2023

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Oct 31, 2023

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3.45%

BCB

12.75%

Nov 01, 2023

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Bond Market Calling Fed

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