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Baidu: After 65% Plunge, It's Time To Buy This Chinese Tech Giant

Published 05/20/2022, 03:23 PM
Updated 11/14/2023, 07:35 AM

Shares of Chinese technology companies have been some of the market's worst performers over the past year. Investors dumped the country's tech mega-caps after Beijing began a broad regulatory crackdown aimed at reining the sector in early 2021.

At one point, more than $1 trillion of the combined market value of China's biggest tech companies, including Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Tencent (HK:0700), and JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), was wiped out amid worries over the damaging impact of the year-long campaign.

Indeed, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:KWEB), which tracks a basket of China-based companies focused on internet and internet-related technology, has tumbled approximately 73% since reaching an all-time high of $104.94 in February 2021.

KWEB Monthly Chart

Despite the selloff, shares of China's tech behemoths could be poised for a strong recovery as the worst of President Xi Jinping's anti-tech regulatory clamp-down appears to be over for the time being.

The latest signal came earlier this week when China's top economic official, Vice Premier Liu He, said Beijing would support the development of digital economy companies and their public listings.

It was an unusually public show of support for the once-freewheeling sector as the ruling Communist Party seeks to boost the economy in the face of slowing growth due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Baidu: Poised For Rebound

Against this backdrop, Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) emerges as a solid buy as investors assess receding risks and uncertainty related to the regulatory crackdown.

Shares in the Chinese language internet provider now stand roughly 65% below the record peak of $354.82, reached in February 2021, and 23.3% above the 52-week low of $101.62, recorded May 12. BIDU closed Thursday at $125.34.

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BIDU Weekly Chart

At current levels, Baidu has a valuation of $41.07 billion, making it the fifth-largest tech company in China in terms of market cap.

With a fair value of $186.51 per share, the quantitative models in InvestingPro point to a 48.8% upside in Baidu stock over the next 12 months.BIDU Fair Value Estimate

As Pro+ points out, Baidu is in good financial health, earning a score of 3 out of 5, thanks to a combination of solid cash flows and its profit and growth prospects.

BIDU Financial Health

Pro+ calls out a few more key insights on the stock, with the point of it holding more cash than debt on its balance sheet standing out the most:

BIDU Company Profile

Baidu Earnings Estimates

The Beijing-based company—which has topped Wall Street's expectations for earnings and revenue for 11 consecutive quarters dating back to Q2 2019—is slated to report its latest financial results before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, May 26.

Consensus estimates call for the tech giant to announce earnings per share of RMB5.09 ($0.76), falling 58% from EPS of RMB12.38 ($1.84) in the year-ago period. Revenue should dip 1% Y-o-Y to RMB27.92 billion ($4.16 billion).

Beyond the top-and bottom-line numbers, investors will be eager to hear commentary from Baidu CEO Robin Li regarding the outlook for the months ahead as the tech giant further aligns itself with the priorities of China President Xi Jinping.

Latest comments

Got you all beat! Still holding CWEB!
110% risk off all CCP stocks.   Especially now with the CCP urging divestment of western assets per the WSJ article.
Yeah, interesting analysis… 👍
Nope! Not buying anything Chinese accept Chinese food
If I nibble on anything it's gonna be US stocks and QLD and SSO. Enough trouble in our market. Don't need Chinese problems.
wait for -95% First then buy
Never doing Chinese stocks again due to its gov’t interference.
I agree. I hope all will get delisted.
It will be time to buy when the trend reverses and not one second before... unless of course you enjoy being a value investing bag holder.
The pick may have great upside but the truth of the matter is the CCP can and usually does mess with every successful/big company in China. If you invest in any Chinese company you have to accept the fact going in that at any moment the stock could drop 20-40% at the political whims of the CCP.
wondering how much uncle Pooh payed this guy to write this piece...
Sorry, ain't gonna happen. It's not freedom loving Wallstreet over there. Buyer beware. Avoid!
After losing $40 on Lukin Coffee, I vowed never again to buy Chinese stocks again.  Best $40 lesson of my life.   Of course there's great value in some Chinese stocks but there's no protections for foreign investors.  Legally, they cannot even own Chinese stocks, so the Chinese company sets up a shell corp outside of China.  Chinese companies that are listed on the US exchanges are not even allowed to share information with US regulators that USA companies are required to provide.  Why the US lets them trade is simple.. It's all about the money.
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