Average Grade For Q3 Earnings Season

We still have plenty of Q3 earnings reports to come, but the bulk of the earnings season is now behind us, with results from 363 S&P 500 companies already out as of Friday, October 31st. The Retail sector is the only one where more than half of the sector’s companies have yet to report Q3 results. For the remaining sectors, the reporting season has ended for 2 – Autos and Aerospace – whole 4 other sectors have Q3 results for 90% or more of their total market caps.

More than a 1000 companies will be reporting results this week, including 87 S&P 500 members. By the end of this week, we will have Q3 earnings reports from 450 S&P 500 companies, with the Retail sector as the only one that will have any sizable number of reports still awaited at that stage.

We grade this earnings season as about ‘average’ – it isn’t good, but it isn’t bad either. To explain our ‘average’ grade, we share two types of charts below that will show how the results thus far compare with the past and what’s happening to estimates for the current period (2014 Q4).

The two side-by-side charts below compare the results thus far what we had seen from the same group of S&P 500 members in Q2 and other preceding quarters (the 4-Quarter Average is the four quarters through 2014 Q2). The left hand side chart shows the growth rate for earnings (orange) and revenues (green) and the right side chart shows the beat ratios. The data in these charts is for the 363 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q3 as of Friday, October 31st.

As you can see, it’s hard to make one all-encompassing narrative for the reporting cycle, other than to say that it’s not materially different from what we have been seeing from these companies in other recent quarters, particularly on the growth front. Beat ratios appear to be diverging from the norm a bit – with the Q3 earnings beat ratios modestly tracking above recent levels while revenue beat rates are on the weak side.

One could argue that this isn’t bad performance and we are being harsh in giving this reporting cycle an ‘average’ grade. That’s a fair comment, but our grade also reflects how the results thus far, particularly management guidance, are impacting estimates for the current period (2014 Q4).

The chart below shows what’s happening to Q4 estimates as companies have been releasing Q3 results. As you can see, estimates are moving down

This negative revisions trend isn’t new either – we have been seeing this quarter after quarter for more than two years now. In some respects, the pace and magnitude of negative revisions at this stage is exceeding what we had been seeing at comparable stages in the last few quarters.

The Q3 Scorecard (as of October 31st)

We have seen Q3 results from 363 S&P 500 members that combined account for 79.2% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these companies are up +7.2% from the same period last year, with 72.5% of the companies beating earnings estimates. Total revenues are up +3.9% and 52.1% have come ahead of top-line estimates.

The chart below shows the current Q3 earnings Scorecard

As you can see, the earnings growth rate for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors is in double digits, with Basic Materials (up +22.9%), Utilities (+14.9%), and Medical (+14.2%) having the strongest growth rates. The Materials strength is a reflection of increased demand for this economically sensitive sector in these troubled times, but relatively easier comparisons for the Chemicals (the largest industry in the sector) and Steel industries.

The chart below shows the industry level scorecard for the Basic Materials sector

On the flip side, we have just a couple of negative signs on the growth front, with Autos down -21.6% and Retail down -1.3%. We know that the automakers were struggling with product recalls and the Retail sector still has plenty of reports to come. The hope is that the falling gasoline prices will help the sector this holiday season, though recent commentary from Wal-Mart (WMT) doesn’t bear that out.

Mixed Tech Results

The Tech sector where we have seen results from 81.4% of the sector’s market cap has been a relative laggard. Total earnings for the 44 Tech sector companies (out of 65 in the S&P 500 index) are up +6.0% on +9.1% higher revenues, with 72.7% beating EPS estimates and 61.4% coming ahead of top-line estimates. The beat ratios for the sector were tracking below historical levels earlier in the reporting cycle, but are now tracking above recent historical levels on the earnings front and a bit below on the revenue side.

As the chart below shows, the earnings growth rate is notably weaker than what we have seen from the cohort of 44 companies in other recent quarters, though the revenue growth rate is better.

The Composite Picture

The table below shows a composite (or blended) summary picture of Q3 that combines actual results from the 363 S&P 500 members that have reported with estimates for the remaining 137 index members. As you can see, total earnings are expected to be up +5.9% from the same period last year on +3.2% higher revenues and modest margin gains. The expected growth rate for Q3 has been steadily improving in recent days as companies report results and beat estimates.



Total earnings for the S&P 500 reached an all-time quarterly record in 2014 Q2 and current estimates for Q3 put the quarterly total as the second highest ever. But given the historical trend of roughly two-thirds of the companies beating earnings estimates, the final Q3 tally will likely be right in the preceding quarter’s record vicinity. The chart below shows that current consensus estimates reflect record tallies in the following quarters.

As mentioned earlier, estimates have been coming down lately and the revisions trend will likely accelerate as more consumer centric companies report in the coming days.

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Monday-11/03

• The October manufacturing ISM report will be the highlight today, with expectations of a modest pullback from September’s 56.6 level.
• On a busy earnings day, we will have AIG (AIG), Herbalife (HLF) and Sprint (S) report results after the close.
• Earnings ESP or Expected Surprise Prediction, our proprietary leading indicator of positive earnings surprises, is showing AIG beating EPS estimates.
• Our research shows that companies with positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank of 1, 2 or 3 are highly likely to beat earnings estimates. AIG has Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and ESP of +0.9%.

Tuesday -11/04

• Nothing major on the economic calendar, but Michael Kors (KORS), Priceline (PCLN) and Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM) will report results in the morning.
• Michael Kors is expected to beat earnings estimates, according Earnings ESP. The #3 Ranked company has Earnings ESP of +1.1%.

Wednesday-11/05

• The ADP jobs report and the service sector ISM report will be coming out in the morning.
• Tesla (TSLA) and Whole Foods (WFM) are the notable earnings reports today, both after the close.

Thursday -11/06

• Jobless Claims and Q3 productivity will be the only economic reports today.
• Disney (DIS) is the key report today, coming after the close.
• Earnings ESP is showing Disney beating EPS estimates. The company has Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and Earnings ESP of +3.4%.

Friday-11/07

• Jobs will be the highlight today, with the October non-farm payroll report coming out before the open. The expectation is for headline payroll gains of 235K vs. September’s 248K tally.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Humana (HUM) are the key reports today, both before the close.

Here is a list of the 1060 companies reporting this week, including 87 S&P 500 members.