The AUD GDP q/q is a quarterly release and considering the RBA interest rate decision earlier during the day, we should see some hints as to what to expect today. If market is supporting the AUD after RBA’s decision, a better than expected GDP will surely move the market with greater range, whereas a weak release will represent a conflict. Ultimately with China narrowly avoided a “hard landing”, Australia’s economy should find support and my view is to BUY on dip especially if we were to test recent range lows again…
Here is the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AUD GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 1.1%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY AUD 0.5% / SELL AUD -0.1%)
The Trade Plan
We´ll be looking for a deviation of 0.3% to trade this release. If we get 0.5% or better, then BUY AUD; however, if we get a -0.1% or worse, we´ll probably see AUD start to move downward and we should SELL AUD.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news, of course, you can also trade the default pair: AUD/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
DEFINITION
“AUD GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”