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Unnatural Moves by Natural Gas Extend Suspicion Among Traders, What Next?

By Satendra SinghCommoditiesJan 15, 2023 05:52AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/android-app://com.fusionmedia.investing/app/www.investing.com/analysis/analysis-item-200634350
Unnatural Moves by Natural Gas Extend Suspicion Among Traders, What Next?
By Satendra Singh   |  Jan 15, 2023 05:52AM ET
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Natural Gas Futures hit a fresh low last Friday at $3.384 as the prevailing warm weather helped the bears to continue their selling spree after testing the day’s high at $3.760.

Thursday’s bearish inventory announcement added one more leg to the warm weather impact on natural gas prices. But still, the last weekly closing at $3.481 could not be a lone parameter to map the short-term direction of  natural gas futures during the upcoming weeks.

Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart
Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart


Abnormality hovers due to the unnatural behavior of natural gas futures during this winter season.

The fresh low on Friday increased suspicion among the bulls as the changing weather outlooks still define warm weather conditions likely to continue till Jan. 24th.

This year could continue selling pressure as every upward move by natural gas futures will raise skepticism among the bulls over the strength of momentum till the cold weather outlook comes.

Undoubtedly, low trading volumes could follow the movements of natural gas futures in a tight range as the wild price swings could extend volatility during the upcoming week, enhancing the importance of the weekly opening levels on the first trading session of the week.

Despite a sudden surge in selling pressure just before the last weekly closing, I believe a gap-up could follow the weekly opening.

Undoubtedly, a weekly gap-up opening above $3.769 could generate a selling spree. Only a sustainable move above this level could turn the trend upward because still, a significant part of this winter is due to some weather experts expecting that chilled weather conditions could start in the last week of January.

On the other hand, if natural gas futures start the upcoming week with a gap-down opening and hold the next significant support at $3.159, that could attract big bulls to start buying.

I conclude that the weekly opening levels and follow-up moves during the first two trading sessions will provide some clues for traders.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely based on the technical observations. I do not have any position in Natural Gas. One can create position in Natural Gas at his/her own risk.
Unnatural Moves by Natural Gas Extend Suspicion Among Traders, What Next?
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Unnatural Moves by Natural Gas Extend Suspicion Among Traders, What Next?

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Comments (11)
s k goel
s k goel Jan 15, 2023 10:00PM ET
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I think it will not break 3
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Ron Somma
RonSomma Jan 15, 2023 9:13PM ET
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I share your thoughts and I am actually wondering what the hedgefunds are aiming for? another vortex and they go to ashes
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Ac Tektrader
Ac Tektrader Jan 15, 2023 8:14PM ET
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America is awash in natural gas.....the problem is getting NAtGAS to parts of the world that need it, at a reasonable price.
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Panda Bear Bull
Panda Bear Bull Jan 15, 2023 8:14PM ET
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Thats not the problem cause US gas has no rival anymore thx american foreign politics
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Nishith Bahety
Nishith Bahety Jan 15, 2023 2:46PM ET
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Love the disclaimer! … Natural gas is one of the most liquid commodities
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Andre Badenhorst
Andre Badenhorst Jan 15, 2023 12:44PM ET
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I Personally think you should be Barred from communicating... FULL STOP!!
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Phong Nguyen
Phong Nguyen Jan 15, 2023 12:44PM ET
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Totally agree. Hope it will happen at the earliest!
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Zaheer Khalfan
Zaheer Khalfan Jan 15, 2023 12:39PM ET
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Nothing of substance Mr. Singh. Looks like you have changed your tone gromBullish to i dont know..lol. As I said before the charts see rubbish and mean nothing for NG that trades casino style. Hedge fund managers want this down to below $2 as they want to maximize their short.
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Mr Dow Jones
Mr Dow Jones Jan 15, 2023 12:01PM ET
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Take all Analysis at 51% Chance, Dont Jump on it
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Roy Hobbs
RoyHobbs Jan 15, 2023 11:29AM ET
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Analysis like it was written by a fifth grader, really why even publish this dribble.
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dookie one
dookie one Jan 15, 2023 10:33AM ET
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totally useless.
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Big Rick
Big Rick Jan 15, 2023 9:14AM ET
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worst analyst but thats what they pay him for... you to loose money. Singh is a 90% reverse indicator and has been for many many years.
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