- 2019 est: +10%
- 2018 est: +12%
- 2017 est: +11%
- 2016: +1%
- 2015: -1%
- 2014: +8%
- 2013: +6%
- 2012 +6%
- 2011:+15%
- 2010 +40%
I may be out with a few sector updates over the weekend (or maybe not) but this post is simply an attempt to show readers the longer-term annual growth rates for the S&P 500.
2017 is looking to be the best year of earnings growth for the S&P 500 since 2011, a year where the S&P 500 was down 20% as early October ’11, but managed to rally back in three months for a 1% gain on the year.
Also, I suspect the Street doesn’t have any kind of tax reform in the full-year 2017 numbers yet.
Looking at 2015 and 2016, that “earnings recession” was all Energy-sector related. Ex-energy my guess is that S&P 500 earnings grew 5% – 7% in the last two years.
Energy as a sector continues to look horrible, as numerous points of good news, i.e. large crude and distillates draws, OPEC reiterating production cuts, has meant nothing for the sector in terms of upside action. Any time a sector doesn’t respond to patently good fundamental news, it's time to sell.
Our remaining Energy (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLE) (NYSE:XLE)) positions were sold this week. Energy overweights worked against clients in 2017 and it doesn’t look to be getting better. (This post may be your Jim Cramer, “buy, buy, buy” signal for the Energy sector.)
Brazil was sold this week on the Temer news. The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Fund (NYSE:EWZ) (Brazil ETF) was sold at a nice gain.
Disclosure: We still remain long the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:EEM) and the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE:VWO).