As of 07/18/2013, there are only 6 stocks traded in the US that have these attributes:
- highly rated for fair value
- highly rated for year ahead expected performance
- highly rated for earnings and dividend quality
- yield greater than that of the S&P 500
- paid and increased dividend for at least 5 years
- technical condition is neutral to attractive
This commentary is intended to be suitable for those portfolios that are required to seek consistent long-term growth of above average equity income, and for that income to be an important part of the overall total return due to approaching or current withdrawal requirements; and for which achievement of the income objective is more important than exceeding the total return of a broad equity index.
This commentary is not intended to be suitable for those portfolios for which maximizing price appreciation and exceeding broad index total returns is the primary objective. Neither is this commentary suitable for those portfolios engaged in short-term trading activities.
Each portfolio should be designed and operated to meet the real world needs and purposes for which it is intended.
SIMPLE STANDARD & POOR’S FILTER
32 stocks passed this filter:
• Fair Value rated 4 or 5
• Stars rated 4 or 5
• Earnings & Dividend Quality rated A+, A or A-
DIVIDEND CONSISTENCY & GROWTH FILTER
20 of the 32 stocks passed this filter:
• paid dividends for each of at least the past 5 years
• increased dividend payments in each year
ABOVE AVERAGE YIELD FILTER
11 of the 20 stocks passed this filter:
• yield greater than the yield on the S&P 500
SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL FILTER
6 of the 11 stocks passed this filter:
• BarChart net rating >= 50% BUY
STOCKS SURVIVING FILTERS
The 6 surviving stocks are:
- (K) Kellog
- (UTX) United Technologies
- (AFL) Aflac
- (TGT) Target
- (BAX) Baxter International
- (SU) Suncor
Unfortunately for many (most?) dividend income seekers, none of these stocks have high yields — just above index yields. However, that’s the best you can do if you also want or need the stringent S&P filter terms. Highest quality stocks have been bid up so that high yield is not generally available among them at this time.
STOCK CHARTS WITH WRIGHT RATINGS
The charts below show the 5-year history of price, earnings and dividends for each stock.
Charts and ratings were obtained by subscription at the premium side
of Corporate Information (a description of Wright ratings is at our blog).
In brief, the three alpha Wright ratings are for liquidity, financial strength and profitability; and the numeric rating is for multi-factor growth on a 20 point scale.
K (rated ABA7)
UTX (rated ABA8)
AFL (rated AAA14)
TGT (rated ABA9)
BAX (rated ABA12)
SU (rated AAB7)
ANALYST RATINGS
This table shows the number of reporting analysts and the high and low and average year ahead price change projections.
DIVIDEND GROWTH RATES
Here are the 5-year and 1-year dividend growth rates for the 6 stocks.
REVENUE GROWTH RATES
Dividends can’t grow forever unless revenue grows too.
There is significant concern these days about weak revenue growth in general, with concerns about the ability of companies to maintain margins (and ultimately dividends) without good growth.
Here are the 5-year, 3-year and 1-year revenue growth rates for the 6 stocks.
These stocks may not be right for you, but having passed a rigorous set of filters, they may provide a rational set of leads for further research for the Do-It-Yourself equity income investor.