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12 Years Of Boundless Breakouts Despite Signs Of Breakdowns

Published 03/14/2021, 12:24 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

For the one or two equity bears left out there, man, what a disappointment we’ve had over the past couple of weeks. Right at the moment it seemed things were breaking down, whoosh, everything reverses course.

This honestly feels like an environment in which you can drop a hammer, and the hammer will simply float in mid-air. Nothing is natural anymore. Breakdowns don’t break down. They are simply defied.

INDU Chart

More broadly than the Dow Industrials, you can see the Dow Composite as a whole has broken above its wedge.

COMP Chart

At least the NASDAQ still has a fighting chance of weakening.

COMPQ Chart

You can see that not just in the NASDAQ Composite, above, but also the NASDAQ 100, below.

NDX Chart

The S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high on Thursday and scored a new closing higher as well. In short, seven trading days in a row were seized by the bulls.

SPX Chart

Just about the only sector left that I think has genuine potential to fall in the near-term is oil and gas.

XOI Chart

Here is the same chart, this time with Bollinger® Bands.

XOI Oil Index Chart

And, finally, with the Williams %R Indicator.

XOI Williams %R Chart

In a market like this, the bearish set just doesn’t have a prayer. Even the smallest sign of market weakness or increasing volatility gets smothered in its crib. This has gone way beyond ridiculous. It has been literally 12 solid years of nonstop intervention, and the results speak for themselves.

Here's the VIX:

VIX Chart

Latest comments

Stay put with your index shorts or enter fresh ones if you were stopped out.  These are the last of the bullish gasps who are tired! Bears are just warming up! This carnage, this toying with the economy ends soon!
Wait until retail investors run out of money to over-buy equities and the Gov runs out of reasons and/or ability to pass stimulus bills. I think part of the recent defiance is coming from investors shorting small caps and using those profits to buy the recent dips that happened in large caps, especially the tech sector. Just my own theory, but I think that is happening on a massive scale after every "near" correction.
A whole lot (almost all) small cap equities are way over bought and there's plenty to pick from to short.
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