By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) -Legal battles over redistricting could lead to new congressional maps for the 2024 election in more than half a dozen states, potentially affecting control of the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a 217-213 advantage over the Democratic minority.
The two parties are fighting over maps drawn after the 2020 U.S. Census. Democrats have already likely gained one seat in Alabama and in Louisiana, while Republicans are poised to flip three Democratic-held seats in North Carolina; more districts are at stake in pending litigation.
Redistricting will not affect the battle for the Senate, where each state gets two seats and where Democrats face a significant risk of losing their 51-49 majority.
Here are some of the cases that could affect the campaign:
SOUTH CAROLINA: SUPREME COURT PRESERVES STATUS QUO
The U.S. Supreme Court upheld a Republican-drawn map on May 23 that moved 30,000 Black residents out of one congressional district, rejecting a lower court's finding that the map illegally diluted the electoral power of Black voters.
The lower court had already ruled in March that the disputed map would be in place for November's elections, citing looming deadlines for election officials and candidates ahead of the June 11 primary.
The map turned a swing district into a safer Republican one; the party won six of the Southern state's seven seats in 2022.
FLORIDA: TIME HAS LIKELY RUN OUT FOR DEMOCRATS
A state judge in September ruled that a map backed by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis violated the state constitution by shredding a Black district in north Florida. The incumbent, Al Lawson, a Black Democrat, lost reelection by nearly 20 percentage points under the new map.
However, an appeals court reversed the decision on Dec. 1, reinstating the DeSantis-backed map.
The state Supreme Court, where five of the seven justices are DeSantis appointees, has agreed to hear the case, but it has not yet scheduled arguments. Meanwhile, the filing deadline for candidates running for Congress was April 26, likely ensuring that the disputed map will remain in place for November's election.
A three-judge panel rejected a parallel challenge in federal court in March, following a trial last fall.
LOUISIANA: DEMOCRATS WILL LIKELY GAIN ONE SEAT
The U.S. Supreme Court restored a newly redrawn congressional map on May 15 that added a second Black-majority district in Louisiana, reversing a three-judge panel's decision in April that found the plan was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.
The ruling was the latest in a years-long legal battle over House districts in the Southern state. The Republican-controlled legislature approved a new map in January adding a second Black-majority district after a federal judge found the previous Republican-drawn map illegally harmed Black voters, a ruling the U.S. Supreme Court declined to reverse.
Under the old plan, Black voters had a majority in only one of the state's six districts, despite comprising one-third of its population.
The Supreme Court's most recent decision granted a request by state officials and a group of Black voters to keep the new version of the map in place through November's election. The new Black-majority seat is widely expected to flip from Republican to Democratic control.
ALABAMA: DEMOCRATS WILL LIKELY GAIN ONE SEAT
In October, a federal court approved a new congressional map adding a second district with a large Black population, which will likely flip one of the Southern state's seven seats from Republican to Democratic.
That move came after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a surprise decision that the state's Republican-enacted plan - which gave the party six seats in 2022 - diluted the power of Black voters, who make up one-third of the state's population.
NORTH CAROLINA: REPUBLICANS WILL LIKELY GAIN THREE SEATS
The Republican-majority legislature in October approved a new congressional map that is expected to flip at least three Democratic-held seats to Republican in 2024.
The aggressively partisan map was made possible by the state Supreme Court, after two conservative judges won election in 2022.
The court's previous Democratic majority had thrown out a Republican map as illegally skewed. Under a court-drawn replacement map in 2022, Republicans and Democrats split the Southern state's 14 districts.
But the court's new conservative majority in April reversed the decision, ruling that state law does not prohibit partisan gerrymandering.
NEW YORK: DEMOCRATS LARGELY PRESERVE STATUS QUO
The state legislature's Democratic supermajority approved a new map in February that fell far short of the aggressively partisan plan most observers had expected.
The map made two competitive districts - one held by a Democrat and the other a Republican - slightly more Democratic, but it left most of the Northeastern state's 26 districts essentially unchanged from 2022.
That year, Republicans narrowed Democrats' advantage across the districts from 19-8 to 15-11 (the state lost one seat after 2020 due to slower population growth), after a state judge invalidated a Democratic-engineered map and replaced it with a more competitive one. The Republican gains were almost enough on their own to hand the party control of the U.S. House.
Last December, the liberal-majority Court of Appeals ordered the state's bipartisan redistricting commission to draw a new map for 2024, though it would still require legislative approval.
When Democrats announced they would throw out the commission's map and substitute their own version, most analysts assumed they would pass a highly partisan map and dare the courts to step in once again. Instead, they approved only modest changes, leaving some liberals frustrated.
GEORGIA: REPUBLICANS, JUDGE PRESERVE STATUS QUO
A federal judge in October found the Southern state's Republican-drawn map violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the Black vote and ordered lawmakers to add a district with a Black majority or near-majority.
The Republican-controlled legislature approved a new map on Dec. 7 that maintained the party's 9-5 advantage across the state's 14 congressional districts. The map includes a new majority-Black district but dismantled a separate district that had been mostly made up of minority voters, including Black, Asian and Hispanic voters.
The judge ruled that the new map satisfied his order, despite objections from Democrats and voting-rights groups.
UTAH: TIME HAS RUN OUT FOR DEMOCRATS
The state Supreme Court is weighing whether a Republican-drawn map that divided Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County into four districts violated the state constitution.
The map transformed a competitive district into a safely Republican one, making it almost certain the party will continue to hold all four of the Western state's seats.
Republican lawmakers implemented the map after stripping authority from an independent redistricting commission that voters approved in 2018.
The filing deadline for congressional candidates has already passed, all but guaranteeing the current map will remain in place through November's election.