Quiver Quantitative - The U.S. stock market experienced a jolt with the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating persistently high inflation. This report dampened investor expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in both stocks and bonds. The core CPI rose more than anticipated, marking the most significant increase in eight months. Consequently, this led to a shift in Federal Reserve swaps, with the full pricing of a rate cut now pushed from June to July. The higher-than-expected inflation data strengthened the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts, aligning with Chair Jerome Powell's wait-and-see approach.
The CPI data's implications are broad and multifaceted. According to Jason Pride at Glenmede, the persistence of services inflation is likely to make the Federal Reserve hesitant in cutting rates hastily, especially given the risk of reigniting inflation. Although rate cuts are still anticipated later in the year, they might commence later than previously expected. This viewpoint was echoed by others in the industry, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to deviate from its current course based on a single month's CPI data.
Market Overview: -Core CPI rises more than expected, highest in eight months. -Fed swaps price full rate cut in July instead of June. -S&P 500 (SPY) dips below 5,000, tech stocks lead losses. -Treasuries sell off, 10-year yield near November highs.
Key Points: -Hotter-than-expected inflation data dashes hopes for early rate cuts. -Investors question Fed's "wait-and-see" approach, anticipating later reductions. -Broader market sell-off reflects risk aversion and valuation adjustments.
Looking Ahead: -Focus on upcoming economic indicators and central bank commentary. -Investors reassess Fed policy timeline and implications for asset classes. -Market sentiment hinges on inflation trajectory and economic growth signals.
The reaction in the financial markets was immediate and significant. The S&P 500 index fell below 5,000 points, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) experienced a drop of up to 2%. Megacap stocks like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) led these declines. Bond yields, particularly the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, also climbed, reflecting investor recalibration of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The overall sentiment is that while the Fed might still cut rates, the path to such cuts has become more uncertain and possibly delayed.
Looking forward, the markets will be closely watching the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, due for release on February 29. This data will provide a more comprehensive view of the inflation landscape and could influence the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. The market's reaction to the CPI data serves as a reminder of the complex and unpredictable nature of inflation and its significant impact on monetary policy and financial markets.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative