Quiver Quantitative - As 2023 draws to a close, the stock market is nearing record highs, driven by significant gains in technology stocks and growing anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is on track for its best performance since the dot-com bubble of 1999, reflecting the surge in tech stocks fueled by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and dovish monetary policy expectations. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPY) is just shy of its all-time high, with market participants optimistic about future growth.
The financial markets also reacted to recent labor market data, with U.S. initial jobless claims increasing slightly in the week ending December 23. This rise to 218,000 claims, though subject to holiday season volatility, is being closely analyzed by traders ahead of the forthcoming significant U.S. jobs report. The bond market is witnessing its largest two-month gain on record, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries hovering around 3.8%.
Market Overview: -Bullish Finale: With just two trading days left, the S&P 500 is nearing record highs and the Nasdaq 100 eyes its best year since the dot-com boom, fueled by tech gains and dovish Fed bets. -Bond Market Booming: Global bonds march towards their biggest two-month rally ever, fueled by expectations of 2024 rate cuts. -Jobless Claims Tick Up: US initial jobless claims rise modestly, adding a wrinkle to the optimistic economic outlook.
Key Points: -Tech Leads the Charge: The Nasdaq 100, powered by AI hype and big tech gains, stands poised for a spectacular 1999-esque year. -Fed Focus on Hold: With December nearing its end, traders eye next week's crucial US jobs report and price in potential rate cuts next year, boosting bond prices. -Oil Under Pressure: Crude prices dip further on indications of increased US stockpiles and low holiday trading volumes.
Looking Ahead: -Jobs Report in Focus: Next week's US jobs data will be closely watched as a key indicator of the economy's health and potential implications for Fed policy. -Dovish Bets vs. Reality: The market's dovish optimism about future rate cuts could face a challenge if economic data weakens, impacting equity and bond markets. -Tech's Staying Power: The Nasdaq 100's impressive run raises questions about its sustainability, with potential risks from valuations and broader economic uncertainties.
In currency markets, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index experienced a slight decline, while the euro remained stable and the British pound and Japanese yen saw modest fluctuations. Cryptocurrencies showed mixed movements, with Bitcoin (COIN) experiencing a slight decline and Ether showing gains.
Oil prices also declined, with West Texas Intermediate crude dropping, as the market responded to signs of a further build in U.S. crude stockpiles. This movement in oil prices reflects the broader trends in commodity markets, which remain sensitive to global economic indicators and supply dynamics.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative