On Thursday, TD Cowen maintained its Market Perform rating and $75.00 price target for Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), citing concerns over the potentially faster decline in vaccine efficacy of its mRNA-1345 RSV vaccine compared to competitors. Moderna's vaccine showed a 25% drop in efficacy after 8.6 months, in contrast to GlaxoSmithKline's (NYSE:GSK) 7% decline after 14 months and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)'s varied results.
Moderna's mRNA-1345, which targets the prefusion F protein similar to GSK's Arexvy, indicated an overall vaccine efficacy against moderate to severe RSV symptoms of 63.3% at a median follow-up of 8.6 months. This represented a significant decrease from the 84% efficacy reported during the first interim analysis. In comparison, GSK's Arexvy efficacy only slightly decreased over a longer period, while Pfizer's Abrysvo showed a more considerable decline in efficacy against two-symptom disease over 17 months.
The Phase III trial results, as detailed in the ReSViNET 2024 abstract, have raised concerns about the durability of Moderna's vaccine. The initial data had been comparable to GSK's results and superior to Pfizer's in some measures. However, the recent findings suggest that the efficacy of Moderna's vaccine may be waning more rapidly, although this will require further confirmation with additional data.
Moderna's mRNA-1345 and GSK's Arexvy are both adjuvanted vaccines, a characteristic they share which could influence their comparative tolerability profiles. Pfizer's vaccine, on the other hand, is a bivalent unadjuvanted protein vaccine, targeting both RSV-A and RSV-B. The differing approaches to vaccine design are a factor in the ongoing evaluation of their respective efficacies.
The TD Cowen report emphasizes the need for further data to confirm the observed trends in vaccine efficacy. The potential for a quicker decline in the protective effects of Moderna's mRNA-1345 could impact its competitive position in the market for RSV vaccines, which is an important consideration for investors and healthcare providers alike.
InvestingPro Insights
As Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) faces scrutiny over its mRNA-1345 RSV vaccine's efficacy, financial metrics from InvestingPro provide a broader picture of the company's current market standing. Moderna's market capitalization stands at $35.47 billion, reflecting investors' valuation of the company amidst these concerns. Despite facing challenges with its RSV vaccine, Moderna's financial health appears robust, holding more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which is a reassuring sign for investors concerned about the company's ability to navigate market uncertainties.
Looking at the company's performance, Moderna has experienced a significant revenue decline over the last twelve months as of Q3 2023, with a -57.36% drop. This could be indicative of the broader challenges the company is facing beyond the RSV vaccine efficacy concerns. However, the company's stock price has seen a strong return over the last three months, with a 39.19% increase, suggesting that investors may be looking beyond short-term hurdles.
An InvestingPro Tip that stands out is that Moderna's management has been aggressively buying back shares, which often signals confidence from leadership in the company's future prospects. Additionally, analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, indicating potential optimism about Moderna's financial performance going forward. For investors seeking more in-depth analysis, there are 6 additional InvestingPro Tips available, providing a comprehensive look at the company's financial health and market potential.
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