According to the latest Stock Trader's Almanac newsletter, stocks can gain up to 15% this year despite some initial potential weakness.
The note states the probability of some market weakness in the near term is on the rise, with February being the weak link in the Best Months. They state that the average performance in election years since 1950 has been "tepid."
In addition, alongside seasonal patterns, sentiment may also be signaling a potential market pause and dip.
"Market tops tend to be a lengthy process and based upon bullish sentiment trends, this process may only just be beginning and could easily last throughout the remainder of this year," said the firm.
They believe that outside of geopolitical concerns, the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts is the most likely catalyst for a modest pullback in line with historical patterns and seasonal trends in the near term.
As a result, they see weakness in the near term, in line with seasonal trends. However, beyond that potential weakness, the firm said they remain bullish for the remainder of the year.
"Our bullish base case scenario of full-year gains in the 8-15% range is still in play," said the firm. "Timing and magnitude of rate cuts, elections and geopolitics are likely to contribute to some choppiness along the way."