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PREVIEW-Price rises and cost cuts help European food firms

Published 04/12/2011, 09:47 AM
Updated 04/12/2011, 09:52 AM
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* European food groups look to pricing for growth

* Pricing, cost cuts to offset high input costs

* Three big European food groups to report Q1 results

* Danone: April 14, Nestle: April 15, Unilever: April 28

By Dominique Vidalon and Silke Koltrowitz

PARIS/ZURICH, April 12 (Reuters) - Price rises pushed through by Europe's biggest food groups will have helped to offset higher commodity costs and tough mature markets to see their sales growth momentum continuing into the first quarter.

Nestle, Unilever and Danone all report sales figures this month for the first three months of 2011, and the timing of their price rises will be critical in offsetting the effect of higher input costs.

All three say price rises and internal cost savings in 2011 should offset the increased costs of commodities such as grain, milk, cocoa and crude oil to drive sales growth close to 2010 levels and maintain profit margins or even nudge them up.

"On balance, we expect good sets of figures across the board for Q1 sales, but the outlook is likely to remain cautious," said analyst Sara Welford at brokers Citi.

Michael Steib at Morgan Stanley says growth is increasingly driven by higher prices, and he anticipates the peak impact of input cost inflation only by mid-2011.

France's Danone kicks off the reporting season on April 14 with analysts expecting underlying first-quarter sales growth of 6.8 percent, including its Unimilk deal, according to both a Reuters poll of 14 analysts and a company compiled consensus.

CEO Franck Riboud told analysts late last month the first-quarter had started in the same positive stance that the group finished 2010, when the fourth-quarter grew 6.9 percent.

The world's largest yoghurt maker with brands like Actimel and Activia is expected to confirm its targets for underlying sales growth of 6-8 percent in 2011 and operating margins up 0.2 percent at 15.4 percent.

Analysts say the company has guided that input cost increases will be at the top of its previous 6-9 percent range, with the group heavily dependent on fresh milk prices, which accounts for a third of its raw material and packaging costs.

Danone completed its dairy products merger with Russia's Unimilk at end-November to create the nation's top dairy product group and make Russia its largest market. Danone owns 58 percent of the new entity and privately-owned Unimilk 42 percent.

NESTLE, UNILEVER

The world's largest food group Nestle is set to show first-quarter underlying sales up 5.7 percent on April 15, according to both a Reuters poll of six analysts and a company compiled consensus, compared to 6 percent in 2010 and 5.7 percent calculated by analysts for the fourth-quarter.

The Swiss maker of Nescafe coffee and KitKat chocolate bars has warned input costs would rise 8-10 percent on its cost base of 30 billion Swiss francs in 2011, and analysts will look for confirmation it can price and cut costs to protect profits.

They expect Nestle to confirm its target for 5-6 percent growth in 2011 and an improvement in operating margins, and will look for comments on share buybacks as the group has said it aimed to conclude its current 10 billion Swiss franc buyback in the first half of 2011 and then decide on a new one.

Anglo-Dutch Unilever is expected to report underlying first-quarter sales growth of 4.2 percent in a poll of six analysts by Reuters when it reports on April 28, following 5.1 percent growth in the fourth-quarter and 4.1 percent for 2010.

The Knorr soup and Ben & Jerry's ice cream group has warned that commodity costs are expected to rise by 4 percent of its turnover in 2011 -- or nearly 1.8 billion euros -- which analysts calculate as a rise of 12 percent, but the group is confident pricing and cost cuts will offset this effect.

The group is seen likely to reiterate its target for profitable volume growth ahead of its market and for margin improvement in 2011, and has said it should be able to grow underlying sales annually at some 4-6 percent. (Additional reporting by David Jones in London and Noelle Mennella and Michel Pires Brito in Paris. Editing by Mark Potter)

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