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Out of flavor: Wall Street slashes targets on Chipotle

Published 01/07/2016, 03:20 PM
© Reuters. A Chipotle logo is seen on a store entrance in Manhattan, New York
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(Reuters) - From the carnitas crisis of early 2015 to the more recent E. Coli outbreak. And now, tough love from Wall Street. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's (N:CMG) shareholders have never had it so bad.

At least six brokerages slashed their price targets on the burrito chain operator's stock on Thursday, a day after the company said it was served with a grand jury subpoena related to a probe into a norovirus incident at one of its restaurants.

Chipotle's stock, once a Wall Street darling, has lost a third of its value since the end of October, when an E. Coli outbreak linked to its restaurants was first reported.

The shares were down 1.6 percent at $420.02 on Thursday.

Chipotle's announcement on Wednesday highlighted deepening problems at the chain, which has been plagued by a spate of food-borne illnesses among other issues since October.

Last year started on a sour note, when the company said it would not serve its popular "carnitas" at some restaurants after it found that a key supplier was not complying with its animal-welfare standards.

BTIG analysts on Thursday cut their price target by $134 to $530 and said the consistent negative news flow was keeping investors on the sidelines.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn), who cut their price target to $400 from $480, said until Chipotle identified the source of the outbreak, fundamentals would continue to remain challenged.

Barclays (L:BARC) cut its target to $465 from $540.

"Given the series of negative headlines and outsized media/social attention, we believe the time frame for a complete Chipotle recovery is extended," Barclays analysts wrote in a note.

Chipotle said on Wednesday it was further reducing its fourth-quarter same-store sales forecast, mainly due to media attention surrounding another norovirus incident at a Boston restaurant in December.

The company said it now expects same-store sales to fall 14.6 percent in the fourth quarter, its first ever decline.

Maxim Group analysts said on Monday it was unlikely that same-stores would become positive until 2017.

Despite all its problems, Wall Street analysts still have a largely positive outlook on the stock. Only two of the 34 analysts covering the stock have a "sell" rating. Thirteen recommend a "buy" or higher rating, while 19 a "neutral" recommendation.

While the median price target has fallen to $495 from $766 in the last 90 days, it is still well above the current stock price.

© Reuters. A Chipotle logo is seen on a store entrance in Manhattan, New York

There were no changes in recommendations on Thursday.

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