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Melius says 'Adobe's story got confusing', cuts stock PT to $685 from $735

EditorIsmeta Mujdragic
Published 03/15/2024, 08:40 AM
Updated 03/15/2024, 08:40 AM
© Reuters.

On Friday, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) experienced a revision of its stock outlook by a Melius research firm, which adjusted the company's price target to $685 from the previous $735 while sustaining a Buy rating on the shares. The adjustment comes as the analyst notes the necessity for Adobe to provide clearer explanations at the upcoming analyst meeting during the Adobe Summit scheduled for March 26, 2024.

The commentary from the firm indicates that Adobe's narrative has become somewhat perplexing, particularly after the company's recent earnings call. The company chose not to repeat its full-year 2024 guidance word-for-word, an action that dominated the subsequent question-and-answer session.

However, Adobe did affirm its commitment to achieving $1.9 billion in net new Annualized Recurring Revenue (nnARR) for 2024, despite a lower projection for the second fiscal quarter nnARR compared to consensus estimates.

Since December, there has been growing uncertainty regarding the impact of past pricing decisions on the net new ARR growth for the first half of fiscal year 2024. Moreover, Adobe's potential revenue increase from its artificial intelligence (AI) offerings seems to be postponed due to the strategic distribution of "credit packs" aimed at increasing adoption of their AI tool FireFly among creatives.

The analyst highlighted that the combination of these issues has led to a situation where the average investor might find Adobe's strategy confusing, as they would typically expect a direct correlation between pricing strategies and revenue growth. The overarching concern, as noted by the analyst, is that advancements in AI could pose a significant threat to Adobe's business model by autonomously generating and editing content with minimal human input.

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InvestingPro Insights

Amidst the recent adjustments in stock outlook for Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE), investors and analysts are closely monitoring the company's financial health and market position. According to InvestingPro data, Adobe boasts a substantial market capitalization of $258.15 billion, underscoring its prominence in the software industry. The company's P/E ratio stands at 48.18, which may be considered high, particularly when juxtaposed with its near-term earnings growth, suggesting that the stock is trading at a premium.

Adobe's gross profit margin for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024 is an impressive 83.07%, reflecting its ability to maintain profitability despite market challenges. This aligns with one of the InvestingPro Tips, which highlights Adobe's impressive gross profit margins. Furthermore, the company's revenue growth over the last twelve months is reported at 10.76%, indicating a steady upward trajectory in its financial performance.

Investors looking to dive deeper into Adobe's financial metrics and gain additional insights can find a total of 17 InvestingPro Tips at InvestingPro, including the fact that Adobe has a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, suggesting strong financial health. For those interested in a comprehensive analysis, using the coupon code PRONEWS24 will grant an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription, providing access to even more in-depth data and expert evaluations.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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