By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Small-cap stocks and shares of consumer staples companies may be pockets of value in an increasingly expensive U.S. stock market, Goldman Sachs strategists said on Tuesday.
A rally that has taken the S&P 500 within striking distance of a fresh record high has also made stocks more expensive on a historical basis: the index's price-to-earnings now stands at 20 times, from 17 times in October.
That puts its current valuation in the 85th percentile historically since 1990, the strategists, led by David Kostin, said in their latest weekly Kickstart note.
The valuation for the equal-weight S&P 500 - a proxy for the average stock in the index - has also expanded, from 14 times in October to 16 times, according to the strategists, who added that the market's rally has broadened beyond the megacap stocks that were responsible for the bulk of the S&P 500's gains for most of last year.
Goldman's strategists pointed to three trades "that offer value in a highly-valued market that has largely priced our benign outlooks for U.S. economic growth and Fed policy."
Despite recent gains in small caps, the Russell 2000 trades at a multiple of 2 times price-to-book, below its 10-year average of 2.2 times, the strategists said.
"The combination of low current valuations and a healthy economic outlook implies that the Russell 2000 should return roughly 15% in the next 12 months," according to the note.
The strategists also like stocks with weak pricing power, which typically involve companies whose products may see less demand when prices rise, noting that those stocks trade at a 14% discount to the those with strong pricing power.
Stocks with weak pricing power tend to outperform as profit margins improve, the strategists said, with margins poised to benefit from decelerating labor costs and from a solid economic growth environment.
Finally, the strategists say consumer staples shares offer attractive valuations, noting they have lagged the broader market in recent months while utilities, another traditionally defensive group, have modestly outperformed.
Following concerns about higher costs and the impact of new weight-loss drugs on consumer behavior, "pessimism around the Consumer Staples earnings outlook has also shown signs of bottoming," Goldman said in the note.