During the Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings call, Hess (NYSE:HES) Midstream (HESM) outlined a strong performance and strategic growth, with significant increases in gas processing volumes and capacity expansion. The company reported a 15% year-over-year increase in gas processing volumes and announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX). Looking ahead, Hess Midstream expects to continue its growth trajectory, with a 35% increase in gas volumes projected from 2023 to 2026 and a 10% volume growth anticipated across their oil and gas systems in 2024.
Key Takeaways
- Hess Midstream achieved a 15% increase in gas processing volumes year-over-year.
- The company entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Chevron Corporation.
- Projected growth of approximately 35% in gas volumes from 2023 to 2026.
- Anticipated 10% growth in volumes across oil and gas systems in 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be between $1.125B and $1.175B.
- Capital expenditures are expected to remain stable at $250 to $275M through 2026.
- The company plans to prioritize shareholder returns through distributions and potential unit repurchases.
Company Outlook
- Hess Midstream expects gas processing volumes to average between 395 and 405 million cubic feet per day in 2024.
- Crude terminaling volumes are projected to average between 120 and 130,000 barrels of oil per day in 2024.
- Water gathering volumes are anticipated to average between 105 and 115,000 barrels of water per day in 2024.
- Net income for 2024 is projected between $670M and $720M.
- Financial flexibility is expected to exceed $1.25B through 2026.
Bearish Highlights
- No bearish highlights were provided in the summary.
Bullish Highlights
- The company’s strategy focuses on low-risk investments to meet demand and generate sustainable cash flow.
- Hess Midstream has a strong line of sight to growth trajectory, with plans to support Hess's development activity.
- Approximately 90% of volume comes from Hess, indicating a stable source of growth.
Misses
- No misses were mentioned in the summary.
Q&A Highlights
- There are no expected changes in contracts or investment approach by GIP.
- Growth in gas production is driving infrastructure expansion plans, with gas expected to continue outpacing oil in the basin.
- The company plans to finalize its 2027 MVCs before making any investment decisions for a processing plant.
- Processing plant investment will begin in 2025 after securing the 2027 MVCs.
In conclusion, Hess Midstream has demonstrated strong performance and is poised for continued growth in the coming years, backed by a robust capital expenditure program and a focus on gas volume expansion. The acquisition by Chevron and the company's financial projections indicate a positive outlook for Hess Midstream and its stakeholders.
InvestingPro Insights
In light of Hess Midstream's (HESM) promising future, as outlined in their recent earnings call, certain metrics and tips from InvestingPro are worth noting for investors seeking deeper insights.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that Hess Midstream has a track record of rewarding shareholders, having raised its dividend for 7 consecutive years and maintaining dividend payments for 8 consecutive years. This aligns with the company's strategy to prioritize shareholder returns mentioned in the article. However, it's important to be cautious as the stock is currently in overbought territory according to the RSI, and analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period.
From the data side, Hess Midstream has a market capitalization of $7.82B, and its P/E ratio stands at 15.01, which might seem appealing at first glance. But when adjusted for the last twelve months as of Q3 2023, the P/E ratio climbs to 22.42, suggesting a higher valuation relative to near-term earnings growth, as reflected in a PEG ratio of 20.23. Moreover, the company is trading at a high Price / Book multiple of 21.1, which could indicate that the stock is valued richly compared to its book value.
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These insights provide a more nuanced view of Hess Midstream's financial health and market position, complementing the optimistic growth projections and strategic initiatives discussed in the article.
Full transcript - Hess Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:HESM) Q4 2023:
Operator: Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2023 Hess Midstream Conference Call. My name is Jonathan, and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Jennifer Gordon: Thank you, Jonathan. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in our fourth quarter earnings conference call. Our earnings release was issued this morning and appears on our website, www.hessmidstream.com. Today's conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements. These risks include those set forth in the Risk Factors section of Hess Midstream’s filings with the SEC. Also on today's conference call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the earnings release. With me today are John Gatling, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jonathan Stein, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to, John Gatling.
John Gatling: Thanks, Jennifer. Good afternoon, everyone and welcome to has midstream's fourth quarter, 2023 conference call today. I'll review our 2023 operating performance and highlights provide details regarding has midstream's 2024 plans and outlook through 2026. Jonathan will then review our financial results. 2023 was a year of continued strong performance and execution for has midstream. We delivered significant volume and capacity growth, including 15% year-over-year growth in gas processing volumes. And expansion of our compression capacity by approximately 100 million cubic foot per day further enhancing our gas capture capability. As discussed in our guidance release, we've established our 2026 minimum volume commitments, which implies approximately 35% growth in gas volumes from 2023 through 2026. In addition, we've revised our 2025 MVCs upwards by an average of approximately 5% across our oil and gas systems, reflecting strong well performance and delivery by has and continued gas capture success. Now turning to has upstream highlights from their earnings release issued this morning. Bakken net production average 194,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter, which includes 19,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from percent of proceeds volumes, which don't impact has midstream throughputs. For full year 2023 Bakken net production average 182,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which was an increase of 18% year-over-year. Has also reiterated their plans to continue to operate a four rig drilling program in 2024. Now focusing on has midstreams fourth quarter 2023 results, gas processing volumes average 387 million cubic foot per day. Crude terminaling volumes average 120,000 barrels of oil per day and water gathering volumes averaged 113,000 barrels of water per day. During the fourth quarter has volumes continue to grow while third parties declined primarily driven by delays and new production coming online in the fourth quarter. Third parties remain approximately 10% in our fourth quarter, and we continue to expect them to make up approximately 10% of our volumes in the future. Also in the fourth quarter with unseasonably good weather. We proactively took the opportunity to accelerate maintenance projects, including routine inspection and recertification of our rail cars and construction projects primarily associated with future well connects. For full year 2023 has midstreams gas processing volumes average 367 million cubic foot per day crude terminaling volumes average 115,000 barrels of oil per day. And water gathering volumes average 95,000 barrels of water per day, resulting in full year adjusted EBITDA of $1,022,000,000. Turning to has midstreams guidance in the first quarter 2024 we expect volumes to be flat with the fourth quarter, reflecting the impact of extreme cold weather, including wind chill temperatures below minus 60 degrees Fahrenheit that we experienced in January. And to reflect that a significant part of winter is still ahead of us for full year 2024 we expect volumes across our oil and gas systems to grow approximately 10% compared to 2023 primarily driven by has development activity. We anticipate full year 2024 gas processing volumes to average between 395 and 405 million cubic foot per day crude terminaling volumes to average between 120 and 130,000 barrels of oil per day. And water gathering volumes to average between 105 and 115,000 barrels of water per day. We project adjusted EBITDA for 2024 in the range of $1,125,000,000 to $1,175,000,000 an increase of 12.5% at the midpoint compared to full year 2023. The adjusted EBITDA increase is primarily driven by physical volume growth from has development activity. Turning to has midstreams 2024 capital program for full year 2024 capital expenditures are expected to total between 250 and $275,000,000. Approximately 125 million is allocated to ongoing capital expenditures for gathering system well connects and maintenance. While approximately $125 to $150 million is allocated to project based capital expenditures, including gas gathering pipeline and compression expansions. The activity is focused on construction of multi-year projects, including approximately 40 miles of green filled high pressure gas gathering pipelines. And two new compressor stations which are expected to initially provide an aggregate an additional 85 million cubic foot per day of gas compression capacity when brought online in 2025 and expandable to approximately 140 million cubic foot per day. Longer term we anticipate keeping capital expenditures stable at approximately 250 to $275 million through 2026. This amount includes our planned investment to add gas processing capacity of approximately 125 million cubic foot per day with the construction expected to start in 2025 and come online by mid 2027. The additional processing capacity is a disciplined investment that is underpinned by new MVC showing will be at capacity in 2026 and supports expected long term growth for has midstream from increasing has and third party volumes in the Bakken. In summary, we're continuing to execute our strategy of making focused low risk investments to meet base and demands. Delivering reliable operating performance and strong financial results were well positioned for substantial growth as implied by our guided 2026 MVCs, which are underpinned by has his plan development activity and our continued focus on gas capture. Resulting in expected sustainable cash flow generation and the potential to continue to return additional capital to our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Jonathan to review our financial results and guidance.
Jonathan Stein: Thanks, John. And good afternoon. Everyone today. I will summarize our financial highlights from 2023 discuss our recently completed nomination process with has and provide details on our 2024 guidance and outlook through 2026, including our continued prioritization of ongoing and incremental return of capital to shareholders. To 2023, we delivered strong results with full year net income of $608 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion $22 million. Looking forward, we have line of sight to at least 10% annual growth in that income adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow through 2026. Driven by has his growth in the Bakken and underpinned by our MVCs through 2026 that provide visibility to annualized growth in gas throughput volumes. Approximately 10% from 2024 through 2026 and continued growth in oil throughput volumes of approximately 10% growth in 2025 and approximately 5% growth in 2026. We continue to execute a unique and differentiate financial strategy, prioritizing consistent and ongoing return of capital to shareholders. In November, we completed our 4th unit repurchase transaction in 2023 of $100 million that was a creative on both a distributable cash flow per class a share basis and an earning per class a share basis. Following the unit repurchase transaction, public ownership of Hess Midstream on a consolidated basis has now increased to approximately 30%. Supported by the repurchase, we recently announced a further return of capital to our shareholders through an immediate 1.5% increase in our quarterly distribution level. In addition to our targeted 5% annual distribution per class a share increase as we have done in the past with the reduced share count following the repurchase, this distribution level increase maintains our distributed cash flow at approximately the same amount as before the repurchase. Since the beginning of 2021, we have returned $1.55 billion to shareholders through a creative repurchases that have reduced our total unit count by approximately 20%. In addition to the combination of our targeted 5% annual distribution growth and six distribution level increases following each repurchase, we have increased our distribution per class a share by approximately 40% over this period. As a result, our total shareholder return yield continues to be one of the highest of our midstream peers. Furthermore, our leverage at year end of approximately 3.2 times adjusted EBITDA is one of the lowest among our peers. Highlighting our differentiated ability to deliver significant shareholder returns while also maintaining balance sheet growth strength. As announced in our guidance release this morning, we are continuing to prioritize shareholder returns and a strong balance sheet. We have extended our annual distribution per class a share growth target of at least 5% through 2026 and are expecting greater than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility through 2026 for capital allocation that includes prioritization of potential unit repurchases on an ongoing basis while maintaining our long term leverage target of three times adjusted EBITDA. Turning to our results, for the fourth quarter net income was $153 million compared to $165 million for the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $264 million compared to $271 million for the third quarter. The change in adjusted EBITDA relative to the third quarter was primarily attributable to the following. Total revenues, excluding pass through revenues, decreased by approximately three million, primarily driven by lower third party throughput volumes, offsetting higher Hess volumes as John described, resulting in segment revenue changes as follows. Gathering revenues decreased by approximately $1 million. Processing revenues decreased by approximately $1 million. And terminaling revenues decreased by approximately $1 million. Total costs and expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, pass through costs, and net of our proportional share of LM4 earnings increased by approximately four million as follows. Higher operating expenses of approximately two million. Primarily from increased maintenance activity, taking advantage of unseasonably favorable weather. And higher G&A expenses of approximately two million, primarily from higher allocations under our omnibus agreement. Resulting in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2023 of $264 million. Our gross adjusted EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter was maintained at approximately 80%, highlighting our continued strong operating leverage. Fourth quarter capital expenditures were approximately $72 million. And net interest, excluding amortization of deferred finance costs, was approximately $45 million. Resulting in adjusted free cash flow of approximately $147 million. We had a drawn balance of $340 million on a revolving credit facility at year end. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Hess announced that it entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Chevron Corporation. Hess midstream expects upon consummation of the proposed transaction, Chevron will acquire Hess's 37.8% ownership in Hess midstream, including its right to appoint four directors to the board of Hess midstream. Hess midstream's contract structure remains in place. Turning to our annual nomination process. As a reminder, 2023 was the final year of the annual rate redetermination process for the majority of our systems that represent approximately 85% of our revenues. The base rate for 2024 was set based on the average of the tariff rate from the years 2021 through 2023, adjusted for inflation. Rates will then be increased each year based on the inflation escalator capped at 3%, resulting in steadily increasing rates through 2033. For our terming and watering gathering systems that represent approximately 15% of our revenues. We will continue to reset our rates through our annual rate redetermination process through 2033. Across all systems, the 2024 tariff rates on average were higher than 2023 rates. For all of our systems, MVCs continue to be set at 80% of nominated volumes set three years in advance, providing downside protection through 2033. In our guidance released this morning, we provide MVCs for the years 2024 through 2026. As part of the nomination process, MVCs for 2024 and 2025 were reviewed and where required, increased. While MVCs for 2026 were newly established based on 80% of the nominated volumes for each system in that year. In 2024, our MVCs are expected to provide approximately 90% revenue coverage for oil and approximately 85% revenue coverage for gas. Our 2025 MVCs for oil and gas have been increased as part of the nomination process and therefore provide 80% revenue coverage. Our MVCs for 2026 provide line of sight to long-term growth in system throughputs. For example, looking at gas processing, the 2026 MVC of 396 million cubic feet per day set at 80% of the nomination level of Hess's expected volumes of 495 million cubic feet per day implies approximately 35% growth in physical natural gas volumes from 2023 levels and utilization of our full processing capacity of 500 million cubic feet per day, supporting the need for potential continued investment in gas processing as John described. Turning to guidance for 2024, for the full year 2024, we expect net income of $670 million to $720 million, an adjusted EBITDA of $1,125,000,000 to $1,175,000,000. This adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 12.5% at the midpoint of our range is supported by continued growing revenues from physical volumes, growth across all gas, oil, and water systems as John described, as well as stable operating costs, even as our system continues to expand, highlighting our strong operating leverage. We continue to target a gross adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 75% in 2024. For 2024, with total expected capital expenditures of between $250 million and $275 million, we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow of between $685 million and $735 million, and excess adjusted free cash flow of approximately $115 million after fully funding our targeted growing distribution. With increasing adjusted EBITDA, we expect our leverage for 2024 to be below our three times adjusted EBITDA target on a full year basis. For the first quarter of 2024, we expect net income to be approximately $150 million to $160 million, and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $260 million to $270 million, including the impacts of extreme cold weather that we have experienced in January. For the remainder of 2024, we expect growing adjusted EBITDA consistent with increasing volumes across oil, gas, and water systems, with seasonally higher operating expenses in the second and third quarters of the year. Looking beyond 2024, we have clear visibility to volume, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow growth that supports our financial strategy. As described, our MVCs provide visibility to growth in oil throughput volumes of approximately 10% in 2025, and approximately 5% in 2026, as well as annualized gas throughput volumes growth of approximately 10% from 2024 through 2026 that represent approximately 75% of our expected revenues. Driven by these growing volumes, together with fees that are steadily increasing based on our annual inflation escalator and maintaining a targeted gross adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 75%, we expect growth in adjusted EBITDA of greater than 10% per year in both 2025 and 2026. With growing adjusted EBITDA, and capital expenditures are expected to remain stable with 2024 levels, we expect annual growth in adjusted free cash flow of greater than 10% through 2026. In addition, we are continuing to prioritize shareholder returns with our return of capital framework. First, we are continuing to grow our base distribution by extending our targeted distribution growth of at least 5% annually per Class A share through 2026. Second, we have financial flexibility for potential significant incremental shareholder returns beyond our growing base distribution. With expected adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow growth of greater than 10% annually in excess of our targeted annual distribution growth of at least 5%, we expect to generate excess adjusted free cash flow beyond our distribution. And leverage is expected to decline below 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2025 and to continue below this level through 2026, providing leverage capacity relative to our long-term three times adjusted EBITDA leverage target. As a result, with a growing cash balance and significant leverage capacity, we expect to have greater than $1.25 billion in financial flexibility through 2026 for capital allocation that includes the potential for multiple unit repurchases per year through this period and the potential for incremental distribution level increases associated with these repurchases beyond our targeted at least 5% annual distribution per Class A share growth. In summary, we are pleased to have delivered a strong 2023 and look forward to a visible trajectory of growth in our operational and financial metrics that underpin our unique and differentiated financial strategy with a focus on consistent and ongoing return of capital to our shareholders. This concludes my remarks. We'll be happy to answer any questions. I will now turn the call over to the operator.
Operator: Certainly. Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And our first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JP. Morgan. Your question, please.
Jeremy Tonet: Hi. Good afternoon. Just want to start off, if I could, with the storm impact that you guys touched on or the cold weather impact, I should say, for 1Q, if you might be able to provide a little bit more color there on the impact. Was it more on the gas or crude oil side? And I guess how do you see the basin recovering or your volumes recovering over the course of the quarter given the extreme temperatures there?
John Gatling: Sure. When we have weather impacts like we did in January, it really impacts the entire system. So when you when you have to bring the wells down, you're impacting oil, gas and water coming off the pads. With the extreme cold temperatures, there were situations where it just wasn't safe to have personnel on the road. So as an example, if you have to have trucking to get, say, water off of a pad, as an example, you have a situation where the trucks aren't running because it's not safe for the trucking companies to be out there in that in those conditions. And, for safe operations, you have to just go ahead and shut the shut the wells in. And then along with that, you also have freezing situations where you just have some liquids in the system that gets that gets frozen when temperatures get as cold as it does. We do a lot of winterization as part of our preparation for winter activities. I mean, as we all know, it gets cold every year in North Dakota. It snows and we plan for that. I would say the issue with the January weather was it was extreme. It was very extreme temperatures well below ambience where we're well below 30 -- minus 30 degrees with wind chills of of lower than minus 60. So, again, what we've seen is from the Hess side, we've seen a resilient system, both on the upstream and the midstream side and recovery has been has been good. I can't really speak to the broader basin. I think Lynn Helms and Justin Kronstad are talking a little bit about what the broader impacts are across the basin as they're maybe looking at other operators. But from our perspective, we feel like that the recovery has been good. Having said that, and as I mentioned in my in my remarks in my script, we are we still have further winter ahead of us. So we're trying to be a bit cautious there. Weather has gotten good in North Dakota. It's warmed up quite a lot. And we're recovering from the from the winter storms. But what we also have several months of winter ahead of us that we're still we'll still need to manage properly.
Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That's very helpful there. So would you say that your Hess midstream is back to pre-storm levels or how do you see that unfolding at this point, absent further weather event?
John Gatling: Yeah, I would say that we're close to being back to pre-storm levels. I would say that that again the recovery on the upstream and the midstream side has been has been very strong. there's a there's a bit of a lagging effect to taking a system down like that where you may have additional well work as a result of a storm like that. But overall, I would say the resiliency of the system has been has been outstanding. So both the upstream and midstream teams have been working very closely with one another. And, it's the recovery has been strong.
Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That's a that's very helpful there. And then just as far as the longer dated outlook, through '26 quite robust volume growth as you put out there, maybe ahead of what some people are expecting for the basin overall. Do you see this kind of Hess midstream taking market share from others or just kind of specific to your serving Hess, in their plans there, especially on the crude oil side, 5% growth through 2026. So, so curious about that. And then also, I guess, egress from the basin, it seems like NBPL is kind of a pretty full physically there. So wondering, I guess, how you think about gas and egress risk and the impact to your forecast there?
John Gatling: Yeah, I'll address kind of those in two parts. So the first part was kind of what's the primary source of the of the growth, as we've said, we, we approximately 90% of our volume comes from Hess, 10% of our volume comes from third parties. We expect that ratio to stay about the same over the long term. So the bulk of the growth is coming from Hess. And, obviously, we have quite a lot of site, quite a lot of line of sight to the to the growth trajectory there and our MVCs kind of demonstrate that a 35% growth in gas over the three years, 10% annualized growth in volumes through the system through the gas system. So, we feel we feel like we've got a good plan, it supports the outlook. And, we're continuing to execute against that. So again, I would say that that, from our perspective, Hess is planning to run the four rigs in 2024. We're going to continue to support that. And as I mentioned, that's including expanding our processing capacity, going, beyond 2020-2025 and into 2027, when that capacity would become available. And we feel like that -- that's necessary to support the development activity. As far as the export goes, as our philosophy has been over the long term, it's always been ensuring that we have flow assurance. And again, I can't really speak to the basin egress, but from Hess's perspective, we're always looking to carefully manage the flow assurance from that. So I would say that both on the crude and natural gas side, we're very focused on maintaining the ability to get the hydrocarbons out of the basin.
Jonathan Stein: And Jeremy, I think just to underline a point that you made in your question, which is robust growth through 2026. And I think as John and I both pointed out with the MVCs implying gas at 495 million cubic feet per day, really right at our capacity in 2026. And then you add $125 million cubic feet per day of incremental processing. That really implies that we really see robust growth, not only through 2026, but really whatever your assumption is on volume growth after that, really through the rest of the decade. And that means that we're not only going to be able to continue the EBITDA growth and the volume growth and the free cash flow growth that we see through 2026, but really have visibility to really that continuing well beyond 2026 and really through the rest of the decade. So really just a robust plan based on all the factors that John said.
Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds from UBS. Your question, please.
Brian Reynolds: Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Appreciate the prepared remarks about the evolving situation at Hess Midstream sponsor level with the potential change of ownership to Chevron and also a GIP to Blackstone (NYSE:BX). Well, I know it's a little too early to probably assume broad assumptions of what the sponsors may or may not do. Kind of just curious if you could talk about the implications to the board around the change of sponsor control and then perhaps through the lens of Hess Midstream's financial flexibility as outlined in the long term outlook, could you perhaps talk about the opportunity set to buy back from sponsors going forward as these deals close or if we should be thinking about anything outside of that in terms of M&A as it relates to financial flexibility as well. Thanks.
Jonathan Stein: Thanks. I think in terms of the with regard to the Hess Chevron pending merger, we don't have any additional information to share in the merger other than what I already said in my script, which is that Hess will have 37.8% ownership and the right to appoint their four board seats. As a reminder, the total board is four Hess, two Chevron, three GIP, and three independent directors. And as we said, Hess's contracts remain in place as well as the dedication. On the GIP side, there's no change to the fund that holds the Hess Midstream investment. There's also no changes expected to GIP's investment operating approach or even to the investment team involved with Hess Midstream. So we're not expecting any changes there as well.
Brian Reynolds: Great. Thanks. And then maybe just to follow up on kind of the long term outlook in the Bakken, with the cost of service arrangement moving, to fix fee largely going forward, and Hess Stream being much more of a standalone midstream company relative to its inception, can you talk about, how Hess Midstream is thinking about anything strategically different than in the past as whether it's pursuing third party volumes? I think you alluded to the third party volume mix should stay roughly the same. could that change over time? And then when you approach these processing expansions, how do you approach them a little bit differently? in 2027 in the past, are you still getting kind of guaranteed MVCs to support those volumes? Anything there in terms of, future capital investment will be helpful. Thanks.
John Gatling: Sure. I would say that from an overall operational perspective, we really our strategy remains unchanged. I mean, I think we're our primary customer is Hess and we're staying focused on that priority for sure. We're always looking to pick up additional incremental third party volumes to fill any olage in our systems. We're going to continue to operate under those that kind of strategic direction. as we add additional processing capacity, we are looking at what additional third party volumes are available in the area. As especially north of the river, so north of the Missouri River is kind of our stronghold. And that's where Hess has significant development remaining. We as we've done in the past, we're going to continue to build out kind of a standard modular philosophy, tightly integrated with our system. A lot of the future development is in that kind of north of the river west area. And we have a really good understanding of that area and are well positioned to support Hess and third parties, third parties there. So from a from an overall strategic perspective, really transitioning from cost of service to the fixed fee period, nothing really, really changes strategically from our perspective.
Jonathan Stein: And I think, as I really had highlighted there on the question before, I think, the business model that we have and the financial strategy model that we have is really unchanged and really unique and differentiated as we go forward. In the sense that we have the volume growth that we've talked about, which is visible to our MVCs as we talked about even beyond that. And all that growth really being captured with stable capital levels in the 250, 275 level that includes the necessary investment to capture that growth. So that means with growing EBITDA and stable capital, that means we'll continue to grow our free cash flow and that free cash flow is growing greater than our target distribution level, which means we're also building free cash flow after distribution, as well as leverage capacity relative to our long term target. All that is supporting just through 2026, the $1.25 billion that we talked about, which gives us capacity for potential ongoing multiple repurchases per year for that period. And on a longer term basis, you can see really how that model really has the potential to just really continue with the existing investments that we're making really driving growth on stable capital, but with continued volume growth, continued EBITDA growth and therefore continued free cash flow growth.
John Gatling: And, Brian, just to build on that a little bit and Justin Kronstadt has talked about this several times from the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. They're forecasting gas growth somewhere from the three and a half BCF growing up to near six BCF by mid 2030. So, as Jonathan mentioned in the prior response to the earlier question from Jeremy, and then also kind of adding into this, there definitely is going to be opportunity for further growth and, that will support the infrastructure, but also, as Jonathan mentioned, sets us up strong from a financial perspective as well.
Operator: Thanks, Brian. Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Doug Irwin from Citi. Your question, please.
Douglas Irwin: Thanks for the question. My first one is just on capital allocation. We assume a similar size and cadence to the buybacks moving forward, even with the increased financial flexibility guidance you've given today. And I'm just curious if there's a point where it might make sense within your strategy to look at other potential uses of capital, whether that's more organic growth, like some of the projects you've just talked about, or maybe even some potential unreal opportunities?
John Gatling: Sure. Well, in terms of the repurchase program, really, as we did this past year, we expect to continue to do multiple repurchases per year. As including 2024 through 2026. So don't expect a change in that program, utilizing the capacity, both the free cash flow after distribution, so the building cash balance, as well as the leverage capacity that we have. And so with those, as we've done in the past, we'd also expect the opportunity to increase our dividend level as well, to be able to maintain the same distributed cash flow that we had prior to each of the repurchases, so no expected change in that. As we go forward, I think one of the things in terms of the use of our capital allocation, obviously part of our financial strategy, as we said, is continued prioritization of shareholder returns, including the ongoing 5% growth, but also incremental returns, such as the repurchases and associated dividend distribution level increases. But I think we're in such a great position, as we just talked about, that with the existing investment that we have and really stable capital, we can really drive just through 2026, as we've talked about, 10% growth in volumes, more than 10% growth in EBITDA, including 12.5% growth in 2024 alone. And then on that stable capital, really driving more than 10% growth in free cash flow. So of course, we'll continue to evaluate, particularly assets and the like, as we've done in the past, but the bar is very high because our existing plan already drives growth and doesn't require significant capital investment, really stable capital to really capture that growth.
Douglas Irwin: Got it. Thanks. And my second question is just around the contract structure. We're into the second term here, which has 10 more years on it, but there's potentially some new changes coming up at the sponsor level and the board. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about the potential for the contract terms to change or be renegotiated. It's something we receive questions on a lot. So really just looking to better understand how you think about your contracted position moving forward.
John Gatling: Yeah, there's really nothing really to say, because, as I said before, there's no change in the contract and no mechanism to change the contract. So we don't expect any change in the contract going forward.
Operator: Got it. Thanks for the question. Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And our next question comes from the line of John McKay from Goldman Sachs. Your question, please.
John McKay: Hey, everyone. Thanks for the time. I want to get back to the growth outlook again and maybe take it from another angle. Are you guys expecting any higher underlying oil outlook than kind of last time you gave an update? Or is this really just, hey, getting a better sense of what the rising GORs look like, and that's what's driving most of this? And then on a related note, is the underlying assumption of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent for your sponsor still kind of the driving bogey there?
John Gatling: Yeah, so just on the oil versus the gas question, overall, I would say the wells continue to perform very, very strongly. And I would say that it's not necessarily a new set from an oil perspective. It's just that continued growth in gas. And as I mentioned, you can see it across the basin that gas does tend to outpace on a slight basis, outpace oil. And we're just kind of looking at that longer term, and we're building that infrastructure that we feel like we need to kind of set that up. So from an overall development perspective, the gas is coming. As it relates to Hess's plans, we're close to, I mean, Hess on a net BOE basis is close to 200,000 barrels a day now. So, I mean, I think as we think about the four rigs for the balance of this year, we're really kind of knocking on that door already. So from our perspective, we're continuing to set ourselves up. We talked about the gas growth of 35%, approximately 35% between now and 2026, 10% annualized growth. And then as Jonathan mentioned, our MVCs are showing 495 million cubic foot a day on an implied production basis. Our capacity is 500, adding the 125 million a day of additional processing capacity kind of gives you an indication of the longer term outlook from a gas growth perspective. So again, we see robust production coming from the wells. We do see gas outpacing oil a little bit. And that's driving a lot of the infrastructure that we're talking about.
John McKay: Thanks for that. And maybe just thinking about that processing plant and kind of cadence of decisions from here, you will, will you have your 2027 MVCs kind of lockdown signed up before you need to make the call on starting to invest in that plant?
John Gatling: Yes. So essentially this year is primarily engineering and 2025 will be when we start long lead purchases and some early construction activity. So as we go through our normal annual process, we'd be setting new MVCs through this upcoming plan cycle that'll get locked down going into early next year. So I think the timing of this will set us up where that kind of three year rolling MVC will give us a chance to lock that in from a growth perspective.
Operator: Thank you. And thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the question and answer session as well as today's program. Everyone have a great day.
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