By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar was on its best run in almost a year on Thursday, pressuring commodities and shares after yet another Federal Reserve official talked up the chance of more than one hike in U.S interest rates this year.
If the dollar (DXY) can keep its footing going into the long Easter weekend it will notch up a near 2 percent gain, and the first weekly rise in a month against the world's other major currencies.
The hot streak extended after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard joined a chorus of officials in highlighting the chance of at least two rate rises this year, with the first perhaps as soon as April.
Markets now imply only one increase and dealers suspect an orchestrated attempt by the Fed to shift that thinking.
Equity investors tend to dislike any hint of tighter U.S. policy and European shares (FTEU3) were down over 1 percent, their biggest tumble in over a week, as they faced a fourth straight session in the red.
Wall Street was also looking at a difficult start as oil (LCOc1) slipped back under $40 a barrel and rekindled jitters about emerging market producer countries and firms.
It was never going to be the relaxing pre-Easter holiday session some traders may have been hoping for. A deluge of data had already started with a fall in durable goods orders highlighting the strains a strong dollar exerts.
"We are going defensive again," said Hans Peterson, SEB investment management's global head of asset allocation.
"I think it could be a slow adjustment downwards (in risk assets) for a month or two months but its hard to guess. The dollar is rising and macro demand and stronger demand in commodities is not really there."
Asia shares (MIAPJ0000PUS) (N225) had dropped overnight too as the relapse in commodity prices and sharp move in China's yuan took their toll.
In Europe, figures showed German consumer morale has dipped while UK retail sales fell, albeit slightly less than expected, as a comparatively warm British winter hit clothes retailers.
The euro eased to $1.1150
For all the Fed's chatter about multiple hikes, the bond and interest rate markets seemed far less convinced than the dollar.
Fed fund futures <0#FF:> imply almost zero chance of a move in April and a rate of just 61.5 basis points by year end. The current effective funds rate is 37 basis points.
It was also notable that Treasury yields actually fell in response, with the 10-year (US10YT=RR) back down at 1.87 percent in European trading from a high of 1.95 percent on Wednesday.
European yields dropped too, with benchmark German, other euro zone and UK Gilts buoyed as the drop in commodities from oil to gold to copper knocked inflation expectations again.
OIL SPILL
Oil was still firmly under the cosh as U.S. trading neared, having buckled after data on Wednesday showed crude stockpiles had risen by three times the amount expected in the latest week.
Russia piled on extra pressure as it said its crude exports were expected to rise sharply in the coming months and Gazprom Neft (MM:SIBN), the oil subsidiary of state giant Gazprom (MM:GAZP), said its production would rise at least 5 percent this year.
It left U.S. crude (CLc1) slumped 75 cents lower at $39.04 a barrel, after sliding 4 percent on Wednesday. Brent (LCOc1) tumbled back below $40 a barrel and was last at $39.84.
"Oil is still the center of attention for many markets. As their prices fall, markets are turning risk-off. We also should expect some correction given the fast pace of recovery in various asset markets," said Tohru Nishihama, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.
Gold
Copper, which has also had a tough week, was down at $4,912 a tonne. The resource-heavy Australian stock market (AXJO) lost 1.1 percent and resource-gobbling Shanghai <.SSEC> dipped 0.6 percent.
In Japan, the Nikkei (N225) lost 0.6 percent, led by a 7.5 percent dive for trading house Mitsui & Co (T:8031) after it suffered its first ever loss as it was hit by big writedown on its copper and gas investments.