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Airline stocks fall on Delta's 'conservative' EPS guidance; Morgan Stanley remains optimistic

Published 01/12/2024, 06:47 AM
Updated 01/12/2024, 08:05 AM
© Reuters.  Delta Air Lines (DAL) drops 6% after results, guidance

Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) stock dropped more than 5% in early Friday trade after the company offered a full-year profit outlook that was below its prior targets.

Delta sees adjusted earnings per share for 2024 in a range from $6 to $7. The estimate falls within the consensus estimate of $6.56.

At its Investor Day in 2023, Delta said it was looking for FY24 EPS to exceed $7. The management noted that the lower capacity for the year has led to higher costs.

Following the updated outlook for 2024, airline stocks tumbled with American Airlines (AAL) down 4.5%, while United Airlines (UAL) is down 3.8%.

The airline also anticipates adjusted EPS for the first quarter to be between 25 cents and 50 cents, which is somewhere in line with the consensus of 40 cents.

"We closed the year strong, with full-year operating margin expanding by four points to 11.6 percent," said Dan Janki, Delta's chief financial officer.

"In 2024 we are entering a period of optimization and expect to unlock efficiencies that will fund continued investment in our people, our operation and our customers. We expect to deliver earnings and cash flow growth for the full year, with non-fuel unit costs up low-single digits over 2023."

In the fourth quarter of the previous year, Delta reported adjusted EPS of $1.28, compared to $1.48 in the same period the previous year. Analysts were looking for adjusted EPS of $1.16.

The adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $826 million, a 13% decrease year-over-year, higher than the estimate of $757.9 million.

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Revenue for the quarter came in at $13.7 billion versus the consensus estimate of $13.56 billion.

“In 2024, demand for air travel remains strong and our customer base is in a healthy financial position with travel a top priority,” CEO Ed Bastian said.

Moreover, Delta announced an agreement with Airbus to purchase twenty A350-1000s, with options for twenty more, scheduled for delivery beginning in 2026.

"The 4Q beat signals a strong end to 2023 and while the FY24 EPS guide is in-line with consensus, we believe bulls might be somewhat disappointed that it was not stronger. We believe this guidance is rather conservative as we still have a long and volatile year ahead of us," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.

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