With reports stating Boeing (NYSE:BA) made its first direct delivery of a 787 Dreamliner to China since 2019 on Thursday, analysts at Wells Fargo believe it could unlock around $0.5 billion to $1 billion in free cash flow for the company.
Analysts noted the various reports over the last couple of days, stating they confirm what the bank has expected for some time, as they "don't see any way China can provide sufficient passenger capacity without Boeing planes."
"Political pressures delaying a China restart were harder to predict, however today's reports appear to confirm political roadblocks are easing," the analysts wrote.
"BA has ~85 fully built 737 MAX aircraft in its inventory which could be mostly liquidated in 2024, we estimate providing ~$0.5-1B cash, although there is significant uncertainty in this figure," they added. "We assume ~$8M per plane, based on ~$50M ASP, 60% advances already paid (typically higher in China) and $10-15M delay compensation each, most of the remaining concessions balance. While BA's FCF has many moving pieces, this increases our confidence in our above-consensus 2024 cash forecast."
In addition, Wells Fargo noted that China represents ~20% of aircraft demand over the next 20 years and is still the fastest-growing market despite a slowdown from historical growth.
Elsewhere, analysts stated that they view the news of the 787 Dreamliner handover to China "as a critical milestone which could lead to MAX deliveries to China restarting, and for Boeing to significantly winddown aircraft in inventory which are tagged for China."
"We maintain our Buy rating and PO of $275, we view the news as further de-risking Boeing’s widebody delivery profile and a tailwind to stronger cash conversion as it continues to burn down 787 inventory," the analysts wrote.