Breaking News
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

Analysis: Mexico vs Brazil: Populist presidents confound investors

Stock MarketsApr 08, 2021 02:40AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
2/2 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador gestures as he speaks during a news conference at the National Palace, Mexico City 2/2

By Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK (Reuters) - When a left wing populist and a far-right lawmaker rose to power in Latin America's two largest economies, investors thought they knew who was going to show them the money.

But more than two years and a costly pandemic later, disillusioned investors are now busy shifting from a Brazil that once promised compelling reforms and privatizations into a Mexico expected to benefit from a U.S. economic rebound.

Investor worries that Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would overspend to appease the base that handed him a landslide victory in 2018 have yet to materialize, and neither have President Jair Bolsonaro's promises to streamline the Brazilian economy.

Lopez Obrador "is 'less bad' than investors had expected, and the Bolsonaro administration has been 'less good' than investors had expected," said Marshall Stocker, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV) in Boston.

While their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic seemed in tune at times as they mixed denial with distrust of science, their financial responses have been sharply different.

Bolsonaro spent an extra 8.6% of gross domestic product on the response while Lopez Obrador barely spent an extra 0.6% of GDP, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

"The glass-half-full read is that Mexico did not engage in any of the aggressive fiscal loosening policies that its neighbors did," said Patrick Esteruelas, head of research at Emso Asset Management in New York.

This, alongside hopes that a $1.9 billion U.S. economic recovery package signed by President Joe Biden will fuel strong growth to the north, is spurring a change in investor sentiment.

While both countries suffered foreign investor outflows in February, Mexico stocks and bonds attracted $355 million in the first three weeks of March versus Brazil outflows of $465 million, data from the Institute of International Finance shows.

The IMF this week raised the outlook for Mexico's 2021 GDP by 0.7% to 5.0%, while nudging Brazil up by 0.1% to 3.7%.

The shift in favor of Mexico has been further supported by the COVID-19 situation in Brazil where deaths are expected to soon surpass the worst of a record wave in the United States in January.

Brazil has so far reported more than 13 million infections and over 336,000 deaths, while Mexico has reported more than 2.2 million cases and about 205,000 deaths, a Reuters tally shows.

Bolsonaro asked the armed forces this week if they had troops available to control possible social unrest stemming from the COVID-19 crisis.

"Bolsonaro has lost the support of much of the business community, the bulk of the population and part of the top brass of the military," Elizabeth Johnson, managing director of Brazil research at TS Lombard, said in a note.

Infighting over the budget has soured relationships between the executive and Congress, she added. (Graphic: Mexico vs Brazil,


Bolsonaro caught investors by surprise in February when he fired the head of the national oil company Petrobras after a battle over fuel price hikes.

Last month, the CEO of Banco do Brasil, the largest state-controlled bank, resigned after a tussle with Bolsonaro over branch closings.

Brazil's financial markets have not fully recovered from the sell-offs generated by these moves.

The real is down over 7% this year against the dollar, versus an around 1% drop for the peso. If the greenback were to firm further, the effect of a weaker currency would benefit more export-oriented Mexico over Brazil, where a weaker real would mostly add to inflation pressures.

Fiscal imbalances too are making Brazil more vulnerable to U.S. Treasury yield rises, with local benchmark bond yields flirting with highs last seen a year ago.

The possibility that leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could run against Bolsonaro next year is also piling up pressure on Bolsonaro to boost social spending and diminishing the chances of legislative reforms.

It is less likely that key administrative and tax reforms will soon be passed, but "even if they get any of these reforms done, they would be very much watered down with a very back-loaded fiscal adjustment," said Gordon Bowers, an analyst at Columbia Threadneedle's emerging markets debt team. (Graphic: 2021 foreign portfolio flows to equities and debt,

An oversold Brazil could still offer opportunities for value hunters, some investors say.

"Brazil's politics are messy and its communication is poor, but the rules still work and the government can maintain control of the path," said Ricardo Adrogue, head of global sovereign debt and currencies at Barings. "There is budget to increase social protection, and the deficit won't be explosive."

"The rest is just noise," he added, "and maybe a great investment opportunity."

Analysis: Mexico vs Brazil: Populist presidents confound investors

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email