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WRAPUP 3-Emerging Europe scrambles to contain crisis threat

Published 10/28/2008, 11:35 AM
Updated 10/29/2008, 06:42 AM

* Hungary sees economy shrinking by 1 percent in 2009

* IMF says Romania faces "very difficult" external environment

* Ukraine lawmakers delay debate on IMF bailout legislation

* Poland approves timetable to allow euro adoption in 2012

(Adds EU package for Hungary, Romanian cbank comment)

By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Hungary's government braced for a possible recession in 2009 and Poland's approved a timetable to adopt the euro on Tuesday as ex-communist Europe struggled to contain the spread of the financial crisis.

Lawmakers in Kiev ignored a call from the IMF to quickly pass legislation to underpin a $16.5 billion rescue package, but other governments across the region scrambled to rework budgets and take other steps to ward off economic collapse.

The Fund also said it was not in talks with Romania -- whose state debt ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut to "junk" status on Monday -- but said its external environment, or its ability to borrow cash to fuel the economy, was "very difficult".

The financial crisis has come as a shock to most countries in central and eastern Europe, a region of states ranging from those still struggling with fundamental economic problems to those fully integrated in the European Union and euro zone.

Once seen by economists as insulated due to its low exposure to toxic debt, the region shuddered this month as foreign investors dumped assets and fled to developed markets in a selloff that has hammered currency, debt and stock markets.

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Hungary, which like Ukraine and Iceland has turned to the IMF, said it would alter an original 2009 budget forecast of 1.2 percent growth to allow for possible recession -- the first of the bigger, export-led economies in central Europe to do so.

"We should prepare for Europe and the world to struggle with recession and we should plan for Hungary's economy not to grow but contract by up to 1 percent," Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany told a meeting with parliamentary parties.

The EU also is also preparing an aid plan for Hungary but strings would be attached. EU member states have already agreed in principle, an EU Commission spokeswoman said, giving no details.

EU law permits members still outside the euro zone to to get medium-term loans worth up to 12 billion euros ($15 billion).

Hungary's appeal to the IMF, a first for an EU member, followed a 3 percentage point interest rate hike last week to halt a 14 percent slide on the forint this month.

The forint has risen more than 3 percent since then, mainly on news of the impending IMF deal, which analysts say could include a standby loan of up to $12.5 billion.

BUDGET MOVES

Governments across the region have slashed economic growth forecasts and expect budget revenues to dwindle: a bad situation when their ability to borrow more on international debt markets has been squeezed by the global credit crunch.

Hungary's Gyurcsany said the government would cut its 2009 budget deficit to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from an earlier target of 2.9 percent.

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In Romania, where the S&P move sent the leu currency down 2 percent, deputy central bank Governor Cristian Popa called the downgrade "unwarranted" and said access to funding did not show "obvious" problems. Analysts were not as upbeat.

"Romania is looking in pretty bad shape," said Neil Shearing, an economist with Capital Economics in London. "On paper, if you look at countries most dependent on foreign financing, Romania is one of the key ones that's flashing red."

Latvia, whose credit rating was also downgraded by S&P along with neighbouring Lithuania on Monday, said it would cut its 2009 budget deficit further from its planned 1.85 percent of gross domestic product.

In Bulgaria, another state considered vulnerable due to heavy foreign borrowing, the government cut its growth forecast to 4.7 percent, from 6.5 percent previously and the World Bank urged the country to prepare an emergency plan.

EURO, IMF

In Slovakia, which will adopt the euro on Jan. 1, the central bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point to align policy with the euro zone's and "stabilise the economy in light of the global crisis", Governor Ivan Sramko said.

Poland's government also approved a euro adoption plan under which the largest EU newcomer is envisioned joining the ERM-2 waiting room to euro zone entry next spring.

"This would allow... for our country to adopt the common currency on Jan. 1, 2012," the government said in a statement.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centre-right, pro-EU government believes that adopting the euro as soon as possible will help shield Poland against the kind of financial turmoil that has lopped some 14 percent off the value of the zloty

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But the eurosceptic opposition is against the plan, increasing the likelihood of a referendum on the issue.

In Kiev, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's parliamentary bloc forced an adjournment in the assembly, continuing a week-long blockade to prevent her arch-rival, President Viktor Yushchenko, from proceeding with a snap election.

It followed a call from the IMF and Tymoshenko herself for quick approval of measures to backstop the deal with the Fund.

In a statement, the government said she and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn had "agreed that implementing the programme depended on ensuring political stability -- for which a stable government and working parliament are required." (Reporting by Reuters bureaus; Writing by Michael Winfrey; editing by Patrick Graham)

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