* Ladbrokes trading within market expectations for 2008
* Ladbrokes group profit up 10 percent
* Paddy Power says increased taxation to hit 2009 profits
* Paddy Power shares down 8 percent
* Fears of increased UK betting tax
(Incorporates Paddy Power results, adds Ladbrokes CEO, analyst comment, further detail, shares)
By Matthew Scuffham
LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Britain's biggest bookmaker Ladbrokes said on Thursday it expected 2008 earnings to fall within the range of analysts' forecasts, despite a run of unfavourable sporting results in October.
Shares in Ladbrokes rose as much as 4 percent in a falling market but Irish counterpart Paddy Power slid upto 8.5 percent after it warned increased betting taxes in Ireland would cut operating profit next year by 9 million to 10 million euros ($11.2 million to $12.5 million). Ladbrokes, which has about 2,600 betting shops, said group profit excluding high-stakes gambling rose 10 percent in the four months to Oct. 31. Profit from high rollers placing big bets was 17 million pounds.
Ladbrokes said in a trading statement that over-the-counter gross win was flat, having been significantly hit by recent results which favoured punters rather the bookmaker.
"Although a run of poor football and horse race results at the end of the period has affected performance, the group remains within the market expectation range for 2008," said Chief Executive Chris Bell.
Analysts' expectations for 2008 pretax profit range between 174.6 million and 223 million pounds, according to a 17 forecasts compiled by Reuters Estimates.
Bell told reporters the poor results included the UEFA Cup, where 14 out of 16 favourites won games, and the Breeders Cup meeting in the United States where five out of the nine races were won by European horses.
Excluding the impact of high rollers, group gross win -- total bets minus payouts -- increased by 12 percent over the four months.
"To Ladbrokes' credit, not many companies are reporting growth of 12 percent in the current market conditions," said Investec analyst Matthew Gerard.
Ladbrokes said that while its gross win margin was up over the period, the amounts staked fell. That was interpreted by some analysts as a sign that the impending recession in Britain may be starting to have an impact.
JP Morgan analyst Adam Cochrane said a reduction in the amount staked is the best indicator of slowing volumes.
"The economic outlook is worsening and we believe the run rate is likely to worsen into the Christmas trading period," he said.
TAX FEARS
Bookmakers have historically been regarded as less vulnerable than other retailers to a recession given the gambling "habit" among their customers and because it is "low ticket", with average bets coming in at less than 10 pounds.
Ladbrokes has agreed 185 million pounds of new bank facilities in the period and said it was trading comfortably within its banking covenants.
At 1259 GMT, shares in Ladbrokes were trading 1.3 percent higher at 160 pence, having earlier risen as high as 164.25 pence. The broader London market was down 1 percent.
Paddy Power said plans to raise the betting tax rate unveiled in last month's Irish budget would cut operating profit next year, sending its shares down 6.0 percent to 12.22 euros at 1259 GMT, having been as low as 11.83.
Paddy Power, which has 186 shops in Ireland and 67 in Britain, said it remained on track to meet a target for 2008 operating profit of 75 million euros which it guided towards in a profit warning issued in August.
Investec reduced its 2009 pretax profit forecast for Paddy Power to 63.7 million euros from 70.8 million euros previously.
Adding to the uncertain outlook for the industry is the prospect UK Chancellor Alistair Darling will increase betting taxes in his pre-budget report later this month.
"I don't know what Alistair Darling's thinking. Nobody ever does," Ladbrokes' Bell told reporters.
Analysts at Jefferson International think an increase in gambling machine taxes is likely.
"The budget has contained many surprises in the past and it is generally agreed that gambling profits are easy targets in the current environment," they said.
($1=.6466 pounds) (Reporting by Matt Scuffham; Editing by Greg Mahlich and David Cowell)