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UPDATE 2-Russian rouble bucks latest devaluation move

Published 01/20/2009, 04:32 AM
Updated 01/20/2009, 04:40 AM

(Adds comments from Kremlin economic adviser Dvorkovich)

By Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The rouble unexpectedly recovered from Russia's latest attempt to let the currency weaken further on Tuesday, bouncing back from an early dip despite a fall in the price of oil, the country's main export commodity.

By 0905 GMT the rouble traded at 37.75 against the basket, around the area seen as the central bank's support level yesterday.

The currency had fallen by as much as 40 kopecks shortly after trading opened and a central bank official confirmed the rouble's trading band had been widened again in Russia's seventh devaluation move this year.

Kremlin economic adviser Arkady Dvorkovich said the gradual devaluation policy may be nearing its end. "We are much closer to a kind of equilibrium (exchange rate) level than ... a month ago," he told The Financial Times in an interview published on Tuesday.

"The central bank will conduct a policy that (will) lead to this equilibrium level, but it's not far away," he added.

Dealers told Reuters they could not yet establish the central bank's new support level and were puzzled that the rouble had firmed despite a fall in the price of Urals crude, Russia's main export commodity, below $40 a barrel.

"For us it is a bit of a mystery. Probably the central bank has decided to be more creative," said Sergei Romanchuk from Metalloinvest bank, one of the biggest players in Russia's currency market.

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Dealers said the rouble was also supported by Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's forecast during a visit to Beijing that it could strengthen against the dollar in the medium term.

A shortage of rouble liquidity ahead of value added tax payments has also helped the Russian currency, dealers and analysts said. Corporate tax payments in Russia suck huge amounts of roubles from the commercial banking sector into the Treasury.

In a separate statement the central bank lifted the daily limit on currency swap operations -- a tool to obtain rouble liquidity against foreign currency, which has recently been widely used by banks to bet against the rouble.

The central bank also allocated a record 501 billion roubles ($15.23 billion) in the day's first repo auction -- another source of rouble liquidity for commercial banks.

Analysts forecast more volatility for the exchange rate as the rouble seeks an equilibrium as a result of the central bank's gradual devaluation policy.

"Going forward we are likely to see higher daily volatility in the rouble's exchange rate against the basket, but the underlying trend is still for a weaker rouble," said Lars Rasmussen from Danske Bank.

"With oil prices that low the equilibrium exchange rate is lower than that," he added. (Additional reporting by Yelena Fabrichnaya; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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