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TOPWRAP 2-Weak data affirms sombre economic mood

Published 07/03/2009, 10:18 AM
DANSKE
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TGT
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* Euro zone services PMI contract but sentiment improves

* US job cuts dampen recovery hopes, dent stock markets

* Euro zone retail sales fall

* China 2009 lending seen doubling Beijing's minimum target (For more on the financial crisis, click)

By Tom Bergin and Tomasz Janowski

LONDON/SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Financial markets ended the week on a sober note after economic data, including weak U.S. jobs numbers, tempered hopes of a rapid economic recovery.

Euro zone PMI and retail sales data released on Friday reinforced a view created by bigger than expected U.S. job losses in June that the global economy is still struggling to pull out of recession.

European and Asian stocks fell, mainly on Thursday's U.S. jobs data, in quiet trade due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

"Payrolls were a wake up call," said Jacques Henry, analyst at Louis Capital Markets in Paris. "The data showed that the economic recovery remains fragile and more downbeat data is to be expected, particularly on the jobs front."

The euro zone Services Purchasing Managers Index fell slightly in June to 44.7 from 44.8 in May, data provider Markit said on Friday.

A bigger-than-expected 0.4 percent month-on-month drop in euro zone retail sales in May added to concerns that the world's economy is not yet out of the woods.

Peter Straarup, chief executive of Danske Bank, added to the sombre mood by saying he expects the economic recovery to be slow due to banks' constrained liquidity.

"We could be running at the bottom of the U for a long time and when we come back the growth will be limited," he told Reuters in an interview.

Echoing the theme, the chief executive of the Bank of Ireland, Richard Burrows, said Ireland's largest lender faced a "difficult period ahead", with lower business activity.

BUSINESS SENTIMENT POSITIVE

The euro zone PMI data showed, however, that business sentiment improved in May. The business expectations index rose to 62.3 from May's 59.1, a level not seen since July 2007.

A level above 50 suggests the outlook is improving, while a level below 50 points to fears of contraction.

But it was unclear how well this business optimism would hold up in June given the harsher economic data.

Reviving consumer and business sentiment is a crucial part of international efforts to pull the economy out of financial crisis and nurse its strained banking system back into health.

Asia continued to lead the way in expecting stronger growth.

India's finance ministry said on Thursday that Asia's third-largest economy could see growth of around 7 percent this year and more in coming years if it made sweeping reforms.

China, the world's No.3 economy and its prime growth engine, aims for even faster growth of 8 percent this year with the help of its 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) two-year spending programme and a surge in bank lending.

A newspaper report on Friday said Chinese banks were poised to lend a record 10 trillion yuan this year, double Beijing's minimum target, with first half loan growth already estimated to top 7 trillion.

Germany's lower house of parliament approved a "bad bank" plan on Friday that aims to strengthen banks' ability to lend by enabling them to shift billions of euros in troubled assets off their books. (Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Editing by Myra MacDonald)

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