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FOREX-Euro runs into profit taking, Ecofin hopes limited

Published 09/16/2011, 04:29 AM
Updated 09/16/2011, 04:36 AM

(Recasts, adds quotes and changes dateline; PVS SYDNEY/TOKYO)

* Euro's gains run out of steam

* Ecofin meeting in Poland with U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner

* Market players wary of taking big bets, scope for disappointment

By Nia Williams

LONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The euro slipped on Friday as market players took profits from a rally sparked by news of liquidity measures from major central banks, and looked vulnerable to further declines as investors awaited news from a meeting of EU finance ministers in Poland.

Investors were reluctant to take large positions ahead of the meeting on Friday which U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will also join. Discussions are expected to focus on leveraging the euro zone's bailout fund to make it more effective in fighting the debt crisis.

The euro was last down 0.5 percent at $1.3804 , off a one-week peak of $1.3937 hit on Thursday but well above a seven-month trough below $1.35 plumbed on Monday. The common currency has bounced some 2 percent so far this week.

Macro funds sold the single currency through stops around $1.3825 and a U.S. investment bank was also said to be selling early in the European session. Asian sovereign buying around $1.3780 slowed its decline, traders said.

Analysts said after the central banks' coordinated liquidity measures on Thursday the market had built some cautious hopes policymakers would announce further action to support the euro at the Ecofin meeting.

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That left investors with plenty of room for any disappointment.

"The market is not ready to make any big bets on this meeting. Investors will be very focused on anything that indicates disagreement between European politicians and finance ministers on what to do on this serious issue of euro zone debt," said Niels Christensen, FX strategist at Nordea.

"People are taking profit from the short move higher on the back of the dollar liquidity measure but ahead of the weekend the market is not ready to take euro/dollar very far."

After the coordinated move by the central bank, funding strains which had hit euro zone banks hard and was impacting the euro appeared to be easing.

The three-month euro/dollar cross currency basis swap , or relative premium for swapping euro LIBOR for dollar LIBOR, narrowed to around 89 basis points after the announcement, from as wide as 115 basis points on Monday.

Wider spreads reflect elevated demand to borrow U.S. dollars in the currency forward market and often support the greenback's spot value against the euro.

Technical analysts also said that although the euro is hovering near technical indicators showing that it is oversold in the short term, it remains vulnerable to further falls.

"Valuation-driven retracements to resistance at $1.4014 and 1.4263 are expected to attract renewed selling interest for a test of the next support level at 1.3428," George E. Davis, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

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"A daily close below here would then expose 1.3246, with a close above 1.4484 required to nullify our bearish view."

U.S. EASING AHEAD

While investors were wary of euro downside there was also reluctance to take long positions in the U.S. dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where policymakers may flag further easing measures to boost the economy.

Such a move, dubbed QE3, would weigh on the greenback and help riskier assets rally.

"People are looking any signs we are going to see more easing like QE3. Any inkling that is on the cards will be the signal for equity markets to rise and dollar selling across the board," said Steven Saywell, head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas.

Some though are expecting the Fed to opt for "Operation Twist" where it buys longer dated Treasury bonds and sell the shorted dated ones. That keeps rates at the longer end lower without expanding the balance sheet. Any signs that the Fed will choose "Operation Twist" rather than QE3 could give the dollar a short term lift.

The dollar index was last up 0.5 percent at 76.674 , while the greenback rose 0.6 percent versus the Swiss franc to 0.8748 francs , supported by the Swiss National bank reiterating its commitment to defend a floor of 1.20 in the euro versus the franc.

Commodity currencies slipped as the boost provided by the dollar liquidity announcement ran out of steam.

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The Australian dollar , which gained more than 1 percent after the central banks' move was last down 0.1 percent at US$1.0325, while the New Zealand dollar traded off its highs, last at US$0.8256.

Against the yen, the dollar remained stuck at 76.75 yen . The threat of intervention from the Japanese authorities has helped keep the yen in a tight range and below its all-time high of 75.94 yen. (Additional reporting by Cecile Lefort and Antoni Slodkowski; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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