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FOREX-Euro falters after brief rally, mood brittle

Published 10/05/2011, 01:33 AM
Updated 10/05/2011, 01:36 AM

* Macro funds drop Aussie, euro

* Tokyo exporters sell euro/yen to take profits

* Charts point to corrective rally in euro

* Fund outflow from Aussie at record pace -Westpac

* Moody's cuts Italy's debt rating by 3 notches

By Antoni Slodkowski

TOKYO, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The euro faltered on Wednesday as macro funds and Tokyo exporters piled pressure on it by taking profits after an overnight rally, but charts suggested recent heavy selling could ease for now.

Investors were sceptical even though European finance ministers agreed on Tuesday to safeguard their banks from the debt crisis with more doubts emerging whether a planned second bailout for Greece would go ahead.

Underscoring the fragility of risk sentiment, Asian bourses failed to take their cue from a late rally on Wall Street, prompting macro funds to continue unwinding positions funded in dollars and yen.

As a result, the euro dipped 0.4 percent to $1.3292 , not far from a nine-month low of $1.3145 plumbed the day before. It also slid towards a decade low on the yen, shedding 0.6 percent to 101.92 yen .

"Macro funds are trying to offset some of the huge losses made on stocks this year by taking profits or cutting losses on their positions in the euro and the Aussie," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager at Okasan Securities' foreign securities department in Tokyo.

Soma suggested that despite the heavy selling, a brief corrective rally in the euro to around $1.34 could not be ruled out after the currency bounced on Tuesday from levels which, had they been breached, would have signalled an acceleration of its decline.

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The euro jumped from above key support at $1.3140 -- a 76.4 percent retracement of a rise from its August 2010 low of $1.2583 to this year's high above $1.49.

"The long-term downtrend is clearly unchanged, but the euro's fall has been interrupted by rounds of short-covering and we may see some of that later in the day," Soma said.

Echoing this view, analysts at BNP Paribas said better two-way trades in euro/dollar and euro crosses looked possible in the days ahead, although they warned the euro could still fall below $1.3000.

Stop loss triggers were seen around $1.34, while a thick layer of offers was poised to cap any rebound in euro/yen around 103 yen.

The single European currency's bounce came after France and Belgium rushed to the aid of Dexia SA in the first state rescue of a European bank in the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis.

But traders doubted that the move by European officials could stave off a further decline in the euro as more and more European banks are being shut out of the market and relying on the European Central Bank for liquidity.

Tensions remained, with Euro zone finance ministers postponing a crucial aid payment to Greece until mid-November, while European Union ministers said they were reviewing the size of private-sector involvement in a second bailout package for Athens.

"The bottom line is there is still going to be a lot of safe-haven bidding for the U.S. dollar because the world economy has slowed appreciably," said Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

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Also weighing on the euro was Moody's downgrade of Italy's bond rating by three notches to A2, which brought its rating in line with Standard & Poor's.

News that Japan may purchase more bonds issued by Europe's bailout fund to help contain the euro-debt crisis had little impact on the euro.

FURTHER STEPS

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke helped lift risk sentiment by saying the central bank was prepared to take further steps to bolster the U.S. recovery.

Although the dollar index dipped to 79.162, retreating from a nine-month high of 79.838, most market players agreed that safe-haven inflows were likely to boost the greenback and outweigh any selling on speculation that the Fed may ease monetary policy again.

The dollar drifted down to 76.65 yen , above Tuesday's low around 76.51 yen, with strong bids seen supporting the pair below that level.

The currency pair remained tethered in a narrow band, trapped by the threat of more yen-weakening intervention by Japanese authorities.

The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent against the yen, at one point dipping as low as 72.64 yen , with macro funds unwinding their positions funded in the yen, largely ignoring positive Australian retail sales numbers.

The Aussie slipped 0.2 percent versus the dollar to $0.9530 , not far from a one-year low of $0.9388.

Wespac Institutional Bank said investors and speculators are liquidating long positions in the Aussie at a record pace, adding that the underlying flow trend among long-term players has turned decidedly negative. (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo and Ian Chua in Sydney; Editing by Michael Watson)

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